After the Cold War, European countries downsized their armies, with France suspending conscription and reducing the size of its armed forces by 38% since the 1990s. Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey are the only countries that never suspended conscription. In response to Russia’s aggressive actions, NATO allies are considering reinstating compulsory military service to increase the number of troops available for defense. The Bruegel think-tank and the Kiel Institute estimate that Europe will need an additional 300,000 troops on top of the current 1.47 million active military personnel to effectively defend itself.
NATO allies are currently discussing the possibility of utilizing conscription to increase their military forces and ensure collective effective defense. The decision on whether to utilize conscription, reserve forces, or another model is a sovereign national decision taken by each ally. Baltic states such as Latvia and Lithuania have already implemented various conscription models following Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. Croatia also plans to reintroduce compulsory military service, and more countries could follow suit as intelligence services warn of a potential Russian attack on a NATO member state within five years.
Lessons from countries like Finland, Estonia, Denmark, Lithuania, and Latvia show that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to conscription. Incentives such as financial benefits, employment opportunities, and educational assistance have been introduced to make military service more attractive. Some countries, like Estonia, work with private employers to send employees to cyber service training and then apply those skills to their jobs. Research has shown that the nature of warfare and national security is changing, prompting a reconsideration of what roles need to be military and what can be civilian.
Not everyone agrees on the need to bring back compulsory military service, as it may be legally impossible in some countries or politically implausible in others. The infrastructure needed for training and medical checks may not exist in many countries, leading to challenges in implementing conscription. A Gallup poll conducted last year found that only a small percentage of EU citizens would be willing to defend their country in the event of war, with even lower numbers in major economies such as Italy, Germany, and Spain. This lack of willingness to fight for one’s country may pose challenges in implementing conscription.
The debate on reinstating compulsory military service is ongoing among NATO allies as they seek to strengthen their defense capabilities in the face of increasing threats. The decision on whether to utilize conscription or other models is a sovereign national decision for each ally. By drawing lessons from countries that have successful conscription models, NATO allies can work towards increasing the quantity of available personnel and the resilience of their military forces. The changing nature of warfare and national security requires a reevaluation of military and civilian roles to ensure preparedness for potential threats.
