Local elections in England, held on Thursday, represent the initial significant assessment of the political landscape following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party’s landslide victory last year. Since then, the political environment has shifted dramatically, characterized by a stagnant economy and declining approval ratings for the government. Reform U.K., the right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage, is poised to take advantage of widespread voter dissatisfaction. Farage, known for his fervent support of Brexit and connections to former President Trump, will now see if his party can transform its favorable polling into actual electoral success. Setbacks have affected Starmer’s leadership, but the Conservative Party, led by Kemi Badenoch, has been grappling with its own challenges following its ousting from power.
In these elections, voting is limited to parts of England, as there are no elections scheduled in Scotland, Wales, or Northern Ireland. Starmer is currently in the process of restructuring local government, leading several councils to cancel elections in anticipation of being replaced. Nevertheless, voters will be casting ballots for over 1,600 council members across 24 English municipalities, as well as for six regional mayors. This includes significant mayoral contests in areas like Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Doncaster, and Greater Lincolnshire. Additionally, there is a special election in Runcorn and Helsby to fill the seat left vacant by Labour MP Mike Amesbury, who resigned under controversial circumstances.
As the election unfolds, it is anticipated that both Labour and the Conservatives will face challenging outcomes. The current municipal elections occur on a four-year cycle, and since the last election in early 2021, when the Conservatives performed exceedingly well, they now find themselves in a precarious position. Badenoch’s party must defend approximately 970 seats, which analysts predict will result in significant losses. Labour, on the other hand, is bracing for its own challenges despite defending fewer seats (around 300). A key focus will be the special election to replace Amesbury, given Labour’s prior dominance in that area compared to a rising challenge from Reform U.K.
The Reform party, under Farage’s leadership, is aiming high in this election cycle, with hopes of securing hundreds of council seats, as well as potentially winning the special election and several mayoralties. Their effort to professionalize the party and field candidates in most local contests could significantly alter the political landscape. Experts are particularly observing how Reform’s performance measures up against past populist movements, such as the U.K. Independence Party’s successes in 2013. Additionally, both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens seek to make inroads, with the former aiming to reclaim a central position in English politics and the latter targeting disillusioned left-wing voters.
Looking ahead, the stakes are high for all parties involved. A successful outcome for Reform would not only provide a momentum boost but also an initial opportunity to take part in local governance. Conversely, the pressure mounts on parties that are likely to underperform. Although Labour has little risk of losing national power in the immediate future, a disappointing local election could lead to increasing internal dissent, particularly directed toward influential figures like the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, whose fiscal policies have been criticized for curbing economic growth.
For Badenoch and the Conservatives, the implications could be particularly severe. Her relatively short tenure as party leader (just six months) is already under scrutiny, and a poor showing for the Conservatives at the hands of Reform could embolden her critics. Some within her party have begun advocating for collaboration with Farage’s party, a partnership she has so far rejected. With the electoral outcome looming, all eyes will be on how these dynamics play out and what they signify for the future of these political entities in England.
