Surging socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani is rapidly gaining traction in the Democratic mayoral primary, significantly slashing frontrunner Andrew Cuomo’s lead, according to a recent Marist College poll. The survey indicates a shift in voter’s preferences as early voting unfolds, revealing a competitive margin of 55% for Cuomo to 45% for Mamdani in the seventh round of ranked-choice voting. This represents a notable decrease from May’s poll where Cuomo held a more comfortable 60% to 40% advantage. With the primary set for June 24, the tightening race is capturing attention, especially as Mamdani’s support among key demographics continues to grow.
An important factor in the poll’s findings is Mamdani’s increased appeal to Latino voters, whose support surged from 20% to 41%. In contrast, Cuomo saw his support in the same demographic decline from 41% to 36%. This unexpected shift has been attributed to the endorsement from fellow Democratic socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, which may have resonated with younger Latino voters. Additionally, the number of undecided voters has decreased, now standing at 11%, reflecting a sharpening focus among the electorate as the contest heats up.
The poll, conducted from June 9-12, surveyed 1,350 likely Democratic voters and further delineates the dividing lines between the candidates. Cuomo started the contest with 43% support compared to Mamdani’s 31% in the first round. When including undecided voters, Cuomo’s support marginally increased to 38%, while Mamdani rose to 27%—a substantial improvement from an 18% standing in the previous month. However, Cuomo’s strong support among older and black voters—48% and 11% for Mamdani, respectively—continues to pose a challenge for the rising candidate.
Youth voters present a key battleground, where Mamdani dramatically outperformed Cuomo among those under 45, capturing 52% to Cuomo’s 18%. Yet, prediction models indicate that 70% of primary voters may be 45 or older, a demographic that typically favors Cuomo. This age divide emphasizes the importance of mobilizing younger voters for Mamdani’s campaign to ensure that the projected polling translates into actual votes on election day.
Another notable trend in the survey is the equitable division of white voters, split nearly evenly between the two candidates: 32% for Cuomo and 31% for Mamdani. However, Cuomo might garner additional support from specific blocs, particularly in the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, which could influence the election’s outcome. The dynamic nature of ranked-choice voting introduced in 2021 complicates the forecast, as voters may opt for alternative candidates in later rounds, allowing for unexpected shifts in final results.
In reflection on past primaries, the Marist poll draws parallels to the outcomes of the 2021 election, where Mayor Eric Adams faced a similarly narrow margin against Katherine Garcia leading into the primary. Adams ultimately clinched the Democratic nomination by less than a percentage point, emphasizing the unpredictable essence of ranked-choice voting. Polling director Lee Miringoff asserts that this electoral format introduces uncertainty into the race, potentially benefiting either candidate as the primary approaches and voter engagement ramps up.
