Former Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained a relatively low profile since her loss in the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump. As she assesses her political future, experts suggest that a run for California governor could be a strategically safer option compared to another presidential bid. While Harris has yet to publicly disclose her future plans, expectations are that she may announce her decision by the end of summer. Political analysts, such as Thad Kousser from the University of California, San Diego, believe that, despite the disappointment surrounding her 2024 loss, this chapter does not close the book on her political career.
Recent polling from the University of California, Irvine indicates that Harris would be a popular candidate if she decides to enter the race for governor, receiving notable recognition but facing potential challenges. The poll revealed that just a quarter of Californians would back her candidacy, and when paired against an unnamed Republican, she’d secure only 41% of the vote. Despite being favored to win, UC Irvine’s Jon Gould cautions that other competitors could also gain traction. Political commentator Kousser noted that running for governor presents an opportunity for Harris to revamp her image, particularly in a Democratic-leaning state like California, where many of her past stances may resonate better than they did nationally.
However, despite the prospects of a gubernatorial race, Harris may carry the burden of her national presidential defeat, which could hinder her chances for other offices, including a 2028 presidential run. Grant Reeher from Syracuse University remarks that Harris struggled with her candidacy and her connection to the Biden administration could weigh her down. Recent scrutiny surrounding President Biden’s health raises questions about Harris’s role and could contribute to voter skepticism regarding her political viability.
Moreover, there’s speculation about the crowded field expected in the next presidential cycle, where figures like former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg may also consider a run. Current polling illustrates that while Harris holds a significant lead, there are still considerable margins for competing candidates, indicating an unpredictable race ahead. A recent Morning Consult poll suggests that 34% of voters would support Harris, but this does not signify unchallenged support, given the potential for other candidates to emerge as serious contenders.
Political experts indicate that while Harris may have strong name recognition, her past as a candidate and her alignment with the Biden administration could complicate her political trajectory. Critics highlight that the “stain” of her presidential loss could hinder support for her future campaigns. Reeher emphasizes the importance of her stepping back to engage in broader discussions, aiding the Democratic party in the upcoming elections, possibly positioning herself for a Cabinet role if her party emerges victorious.
Ultimately, despite a favorable political landscape in California, Harris faces significant hurdles nationally due to perceptions of her previous presidential run and the overall sentiment towards established political figures. Political analyst Costas Panagopoulos suggests that while California voters may offer her a more forgiving environment, there remains a longing for new candidates at the national level. Harris’s journey forward seems to hinge on her ability to effectively strategize her next steps within a complex and evolving political landscape.
