The landscape of fertility rates across Europe presents an alarming picture, with many countries facing their lowest birth rates in decades. For 2024, several nations are reporting figures well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, which is necessary to maintain a stable population size. Countries like Germany, Austria, Italy, and France are facing severe declines, raising concerns about the long-term viability of their demographics. Experts indicate that these trends not only reflect economic and social challenges but also a broader cultural shift in attitudes toward family and reproduction across the continent.
Germany’s fertility rate has plunged to 1.35, the lowest since 1994. This decline occurs despite some population growth attributed to net immigration; however, demographic data reveals that more people are dying than are being born. The birth rate decline is not uniform across the nation; wealthier regions like Bavaria and Hamburg continue to see population growth, while poorer areas such as Thuringia and Saxony experience stark decreases. Similarly, Austria has reported a record low of 1.32 births per woman, highlighting a concerning downward trend in fertility.
Italy’s situation is particularly dire, with a birth rate plummeting to 1.18 in 2024, compounded by emigration and declining net population. The number of births has decreased sharply, with only six babies born for every 1,000 people, while mortality rates outpace births. The trend indicates a demographic crisis as the country’s population has fallen below 60 million despite migration efforts to mitigate decline. The majority of population loss is occurring in economically lagging regions, especially in southern Italy.
In contrast, France, a historically fertile nation, is also experiencing significant decline, reaching a birth rate of just 1.62, the lowest since World War I. Over the past 15 years, fertility has decreased by about 20%, contributing to a fragile birth-death balance that has not been seen since the end of World War II. While life expectancy remains a bright spot—an average of 85.6 years for women—it doesn’t alleviate the demographic challenges that the country faces, particularly concerning the long-term sustainability of its population.
Meanwhile, England and Wales present an anomaly, with a slight increase in births (0.6%) primarily due to older fathers. Interestingly, the proportion of births to foreign parents has surged, suggesting that immigration may play a crucial role in stabilizing birth rates in these regions. Spain shows some potential for recovery, with a marginal increase in projected birth rates in 2024, although the trend toward older motherhood continues. The age of mothers has risen significantly over the past decade, reflecting broader societal shifts in family planning and childbearing.
The Nordic countries are also facing severe demographic challenges, with Finland reporting its worst fertility rate since 1776 at just 1.25. In Sweden, rates also dipped to 1.43, against the backdrop of various municipalities experiencing population losses. On the other hand, Hungary and Poland have seen disappointing outcomes from pro-family policies aimed at boosting fertility, with Poland’s birth rate dropping to an alarming 1.1, and Hungary facing a record low of 1.38. These statistics underscore the complexities of national strategies to encourage higher birth rates in the face of changing social norms and economic conditions.
