Next week, Prime Minister Mark Carney will address the House of Commons for the first time since June, during the opening of Parliament’s fall session. Recent polling conducted by Ipsos for Global News reveals an approval rating for Carney’s government that has reached 58 percent—a mark not seen by any government in nearly ten years. This rise in approval, which increased by 10 points over the summer, is especially notable given the backdrop of criticisms from opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, who has labeled the summer as a “Seinfeld summer,” assuming the government has accomplished nothing. Ipsos’ Global CEO of Public Affairs, Darrell Bricker, suggests that while the approval is high, it remains to be seen how long Canadians will maintain this positive outlook without tangible results.
Despite a solid approval rating, the Carney government faces some vulnerabilities, particularly concerning pressing issues of affordability, cost of living, and the economy—areas that the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, and NDP are likely to scrutinize. Bricker emphasizes that mere communication or promises won’t suffice; the government will need to deliver tangible outcomes. The poll results indicate considerable dissatisfaction regarding the government’s progress on key concerns, with over 36 percent of respondents grading Carney’s efforts to lower living costs as an “F.” Additionally, nearly one-third rated the government’s handling of the housing affordability crisis in the same failing manner.
The electoral sentiments that initially propelled Carney’s victory were primarily attributed to perceptions of his capability in managing relations with the U.S. and addressing tariff issues. However, insights from recent cabinet meetings reveal that the urgency surrounding these relationships has diminished. Despite this shift in focus, voter confidence in Carney’s leadership seems steady, with many expressing no regrets about their decision to support him, particularly concerning trade relations with the U.S. Nonetheless, new issues have emerged that center on economic concerns—specifically, voters’ lack of faith in the government’s ability to address housing affordability, cost of living, and overall job security.
According to the Ipsos survey, the Liberal Party continues to hold a slight edge in voter preference. Nationally, 43 percent of decided voters would choose the Liberals, just shy of the 44 percent during the spring election. In contrast, 39 percent support the Conservative Party, down from 41 percent in April’s election, while the leaderless NDP claims 7 percent, slightly up from Jagmeet Singh’s 6.3 percent. Notably, within Quebec, the Liberals lead at 41 percent, trailed by the Bloc Québécois at 32 percent, and the Conservatives at 23 percent, while the NDP remains at just 1 percent in the province.
Bricker underscores that while the Carney government enjoys a high approval rating and consistent voter preference, public sentiment regarding the efficacy of its policies on economic issues remains critical. The poll results reflect a significant gap between favorable perceptions of Carney’s leadership and the public’s perception of actual progress on pressing financial matters. With many Canadians likely to harbor reservations about their long-term outlook regarding the economy, the government’s attention to these issues will be paramount for maintaining its approval ratings in the face of forthcoming challenges.
As Parliament reconvenes, the Carney government faces an intricate landscape marked by fluctuating voter sentiments, emerging economic pressures, and the scrutiny of opposition parties. While initial polling provides a positive snapshot, the government’s ability to translate approval into actionable policies and outcomes will be significant in shaping its future trajectory. With a majority of Canadians still feeling the pinch of economic challenges, how effectively Carney addresses these concerns could dictate the government’s enduring success or potential pitfalls ahead.
