On September 18, environment ministers from the European Union (EU) are scheduled to gather in Brussels to discuss national emissions targets for 2035, a crucial decision that must be finalized at the EU level ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil later this year. An internal briefing note reveals that discussions surrounding the 2040 climate emissions target, which the Danish EU presidency intended to finalize during this meeting, have since been postponed as various countries express the need for additional time to evaluate the proposal. This delay highlights the complexities and differences among EU member states regarding climate ambitions.
The internal note indicates a division among countries based on their aspirations for national targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which will be addressed at the forthcoming UN General Assembly (UNGA). Countries categorized as “less climate ambitious” are advocating for reductions that are closer to 66% of greenhouse gas emissions. They propose a linear reduction trajectory from 2030 to 2050. Conversely, the “more ambitious” EU nations are pushing for a clearer and more assertive target of between 66% and 72.5% for 2035, which would also align with forthcoming 2040 targets.
As per the Paris Agreement, countries must submit or update their NDCs every five years, making it imperative for the EU to revise its targets, including the newly established 2035 target, and intermediate benchmarks like the one proposed for 2040. The EU NDC will be formally adopted by member states, while the 2040 climate target will require an amendment to the European Climate Law enacted in 2021. Several nations are advocating for the simultaneous adoption of both targets, positing that doing so would bolster the EU’s position and credibility at a global level during COP30 discussions.
The situation is complicated by the realization that consensus among member states might not be reached in time for the planned discussions at the UNGA, which starts on September 23. There is a possibility that an extraordinary environment council meeting may be convened before COP30 to address the NDCs and the 2040 target in a unified manner. Denmark, holding the EU presidency, aims to avoid arriving at the UNGA without a clear stance and is considering two potential options: one with a lower NDC range and another that decouples the NDCs from the 2040 target.
Denmark has actively advocated for an associated approach to the 2035 and 2040 targets, even attempting to prompt a vote on these matters at a recent ministerial level. However, major countries like Germany and Italy have aligned with France to postpone any decisions until the European Council meeting in October, where EU heads of state will convene. This stance has garnered support from a number of nations, including Austria, Hungary, and Poland, illustrating a broader apprehension about the ambitious targets proposed by the EU executive, especially the 90% reduction by 2040.
Meanwhile, countries like Czechia and Hungary are also pressing for a discussion at the heads of state level to review the ambitious 2040 target, aiming for a more feasible approach given their national contexts. France, Germany, and Italy seek to discuss the necessary conditions that would facilitate the adoption and implementation of the proposed climate strategies. The complexities of aligning these national interests underscore the broader challenge faced by the EU in uniting member states under a cohesive climate agenda to strengthen its bargaining power and efficacy on the global climate stage.
