Former President Trump is leading in a key battleground state in the 2024 presidential election, with a 3-percentage point lead over President Biden in Nevada, according to a new poll by AARP. In this survey, Trump is favored by 48% of likely voters in Nevada compared to 45% who support Biden. The lead extends to 7 points when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included, although Kennedy has not yet qualified for the Nevada ballot and state Democrats have challenged his eligibility. Trump’s lead is more pronounced among voters over 50, with a double-digit lead over Biden in that age demographic. However, Biden maintains a lead among Hispanic voters within that age group.
Nevada is a closely watched state that could determine the outcome of the presidential election, as it has not voted for a Republican candidate since 2004. Biden narrowly won the state in 2020, and recent polling has shown Trump leading in the state. Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo recently expressed concerns about Biden’s handling of the economy, suggesting that Nevadans are losing confidence in the president’s ability to address issues like inflation and housing. Only 40% of voters over 50 mostly approve of Biden’s job performance, while 56% of the same group approve of Trump’s job as president.
In addition to the presidential race, the survey also looked at Nevada’s U.S. Senate race, where incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen is seeking re-election against Republican challenger Sam Brown. The poll found that Rosen is leading Brown among voters of all ages, boosted by support from Hispanic voters. Top issues for Nevada voters include the economy, rising food prices, immigration, and border security. Pollsters suggest that split-ticket voters will play a crucial role in the upcoming election, as there are a significant number of voters who are willing to split their tickets between parties.
The AARP survey included 1,368 likely voters interviewed in June 2022, with a margin of error of 4%. The partnership between Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research conducted the survey, providing a comprehensive look at voter sentiments in Nevada. Republicans are optimistic about their chances of flipping the state, especially after Governor Lombardo’s victory in the 2022 election. The state’s large Hispanic population is seen as a significant voting bloc with the potential to sway the election in either direction.
Overall, the AARP poll indicates a tight race in Nevada between Trump and Biden, with Trump holding a slight edge. The significance of Hispanic voters, concerns about the economy, and voter sentiment towards the candidates will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 election in the state. Split-ticket voters and undecided voters will also be key factors in influencing the final result. Nevada’s status as a battleground state makes it a focal point for both parties as they seek to secure victory in the upcoming presidential election.
