With just a month left before the US presidential election, a series of economic shocks are threatening Vice President Kamala Harris’ momentum, particularly on the issue of the economy. These shocks include a port strike, a hurricane, and escalating fighting in the Middle East. While the US economy is strong in many aspects, these events offer political ammunition to Republicans who want to portray the current administration as a failure. Former President Donald Trump has been quick to blame the chaos on his rival, Harris, even though the events are beyond the control of any single person or administration.
One factor that could have been in Harris’ favor is falling gas prices in the US, as voters often associate this with the party in power. However, a sudden spike in global oil prices due to fighting in the Middle East has raised the prospect of higher prices for American drivers. Additionally, an East Coast port strike that began recently could further disrupt the flow of goods, potentially leading to shortages and higher prices for consumers. These events create a challenging economic environment that could impact voter perceptions, particularly as the election approaches.
Tragedies are also adding to the economic challenges, with at least 180 people dead since Hurricane Helene struck the Southeast last week. The destruction caused by the hurricane is expected to have a significant economic impact, with estimates reaching as high as $34 billion. This is likely to lead to temporary job losses and furloughs as businesses in the region work to recover. When combined with the potential impact of the port strikes and other disruptions, it could result in a negative jobs report for October, impacting the Biden administration’s impressive record of job growth over the past four years.
The potential for negative job growth in October would be a significant setback, as the US has been adding jobs at a strong rate for the past four years, helping to drive the economy out of the pandemic recession. The timing of the October jobs report, just four days before the election, could be particularly challenging for the Harris campaign. A negative jobs report could have political implications, as it has not been seen since the end of the Trump administration in December 2020. While any job losses would likely be temporary, the optics of a negative report could sway voter perceptions of the current administration’s economic performance.
Overall, the economic challenges facing the US in the lead-up to the election are significant, with a combination of factors such as port strikes, hurricanes, and global events impacting the economy. The response to these challenges could influence voter perceptions of the current administration’s ability to handle crises and manage the economy effectively. As the election approaches, the outcome may be influenced by how the administration responds to these economic shocks and communicates its strategy to address them.