Somalia’s prime minister, Hamza Abdi Barre, held a town-hall meeting in Mogadishu to mark the two-year anniversary of his cabinet’s formation. The offensive against al-Shabab, launched in 2022, was a hot topic at the event. Barre claimed that government forces had recaptured 215 villages and towns from al-Shabab, showing significant progress in the war effort. However, the divisive tactics used by the government, such as arming clan militias, have undermined stability in the country and perpetuated bloodshed.
The decision to arm tribal militias was made after al-Shabab’s attack on a hotel in Mogadishu in August 2022. While the militias initially helped drive al-Shabab out of Hirshabelle and Galmudug states, it also deepened societal divisions. By favoring militias from the president’s clan, the government alienated other communities and fueled clan-based violence. The newly armed militias turned on civilians, leading to increased violence, banditry, and illegal roadblocks in the regions liberated from al-Shabab.
The government’s inability to control the armed militias it empowered has worsened the security situation in Somalia. Instead of dealing with the singular threat of al-Shabab, Mogadishu is now facing multiple armed groups from conflicting clans. Additionally, the decision to invite more foreign troops into Somalia, under the pretext of defeating al-Shabab, has further alienated the Somali public. The presence of foreign troops has historically been a point of contention for Somalis, fueling resentment and providing al-Shabab with more support.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s divisive actions, including sidelining various stakeholders in the war effort and pushing for constitutional amendments to expand his control, have further eroded public support for the government. As a result, al-Shabab has been able to strengthen its support base, recruit fighters, and maintain control over territory. The group has been successful in portraying itself as a legitimate alternative to the corrupt authorities in Mogadishu, allowing it to operate a parallel government within Somalia.
Despite the government’s efforts, al-Shabab has been able to regain territory, launch deadly attacks on Somali troops, and carry out high-profile attacks in Mogadishu. The current strategy is clearly not working, and President Mohamud must acknowledge his mistakes, reconcile society, and engage in genuine dialogue with all stakeholders, including al-Shabab. This approach would not only save lives but also strengthen the president’s credibility as a leader working in Somalia’s best interest.
After more than three decades of war, Somali society cannot afford more bloodshed. It is crucial for the government to reassess its strategies, prioritize unity over division, and work towards a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Ultimately, genuine dialogue and reconciliation are the keys to ending the cycle of violence in Somalia and building a more stable and prosperous future for the country.
