As we enter the midpoint of 2024, a record-breaking election year is shaping global markets and economies. The European Union has seen a rightward shift, with far-right parties making significant gains in many member states due to frustration over issues like the migrant crisis and stagnant economy. In the United Kingdom, similar issues led to the approval of Brexit eight years ago. This conservative wave has caught the attention of the U.S., where President Trump is polling higher than President Biden, despite recent legal troubles.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third term, but with a reduced majority, leading to a coalition government. The market reacted negatively to this news, with a significant selloff and foreign investors pulling out. However, Modi’s historic reforms are expected to continue driving economic growth, with India projected to see nearly 7% GDP growth this year. The BJP government is likely to focus on developing India’s manufacturing sector, though coalition allies may slow down the process.
Mexico recently held its largest election ever, resulting in Claudia Sheinbaum, from the National Regeneration Movement, becoming the first woman president of Mexico and any North American country. Sheinbaum’s victory could lead to a less business-friendly environment, potentially nationalizing the country’s power generation. The Mexican peso has faced pressure following the election, with the exchange rate reaching levels unseen in over a year. Sheinbaum’s focus on judiciary reform will be an early priority for the new congress in September.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November is highly anticipated, with President Trump still polling higher than President Biden despite recent legal challenges. Trump’s plan to eliminate income taxes with an all-tariff policy has raised concerns, as this would likely require a constitutional amendment. Understanding government policy’s impact on investment decisions will be crucial in navigating the remainder of 2024 and beyond. U.S. Global Investors continue to monitor developments to provide insights and strategies for investors in this evolving political landscape.
