U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to end the war in Ukraine is taking place against a backdrop of global power struggles and spheres of influence. The map created by Newsweek outlines how this geopolitical chess game might unfold. Despite talks yielding a 30-day ceasefire proposal and a deal to stop Black Sea strikes, the war in Ukraine continues. The process to end the war has been compared to the Yalta conference in 1945, where leaders from the U.S., U.K., and Soviet Union divided Europe before the Cold War.
The discussion around Ukraine’s future without the involvement of Ukraine itself has raised concerns about Europe’s future without Europe. The refusal of the U.S. to give Ukraine security guarantees has been likened to appeasement tactics during the Munich Conference in 1938. This stance suggests that great powers are now carving out spheres of influence without interference. It is believed that superpowers like China and the U.S. may divide the globe between them, with uncertainty about Russia’s role in this scenario.
Amidst these power dynamics, Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe is becoming more apparent. The country is accused of interfering in the internal politics of various countries in the region, such as Moldova, Romania, and Serbia. Protests and elections in Eastern Europe have been overshadowed by concerns about Russian influence, with leaders being criticized for their ties to Moscow. In Slovakia, protests erupted against laws restricting NGOs, similar to Russia’s foreign agent law.
Central Asia is seen as a potential area of contest between Russia and China. Despite close ties between Russia and countries like Mongolia and Kazakhstan, China’s growing influence in the region cannot be overlooked. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Kazakhstan signals China’s intent to expand its influence in the former Soviet republic. Likewise, Trump’s aspirations in the Western Hemisphere, including acquiring Greenland and controlling the Panama Canal, may face challenges from China, particularly in Latin America.
The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China has become a significant focus, potentially weakening Putin’s position if China aligns more closely with Europe due to increased tariffs. The question of a potential arrangement between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, which Beijing considers a rebel region, is also looming. Military drills around Taiwan have raised concerns about the U.S.’s response to a possible invasion by China. The possibility of tacit agreements between the two superpowers in different regions, such as the South China Sea, may shape future power dynamics.
Overall, the global chess game involving the U.S., Russia, China, and other key players is complex and multifaceted. The shifting power dynamics in areas like Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Western Hemisphere reflect a broader struggle for influence and control. The outcomes of negotiations, conflicts, and alliances between these countries will have far-reaching implications for the future of international relations and global stability.
