Kosmos 482, a Soviet space probe that has been in orbit since a failed launch in 1972, is predicted to crash to Earth this month. According to the U.S. Space Force, the reentry of the probe is expected around May 12, although calculations by satellite analyst Marco Langbroek suggest it could occur as early as May 10. The specific landing site will be determined just before the impact; however, experts, including astronomer Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, assure that the potential for harm to people or populated areas is low. While the situation may sound alarming, McDowell minimizes the risks, stating it is “not end-of-the-world alarming.”
Kosmos 482 launched on March 31, 1972, as part of a mission to Venus, following the successful landing of Venera 7, which marked the first soft landing on another planet. Its sister craft, Venera 8, had a successful landing earlier that month, but Kosmos 482 encountered technical difficulties during the launch. An issue with the upper stage of the rocket meant that it could not achieve the velocity needed to escape Earth’s gravitational pull. Consequently, pieces from the rocket began to reenter Earth’s atmosphere in the early 1980s, while a portion of the craft remained in orbit, slowly decaying toward reentry.
The probe was designed to endure the high temperatures and pressures of Venus, which increases the likelihood of it surviving reentry and reaching the ground largely intact, rather than burning up in the atmosphere like most space debris. Upon impact, it’s expected to land at velocities comparable to an airplane in flight, which could cause significant damage if it strikes a populated area. While concerns about potential casualties are valid, McDowell mentions the odds of injury as being around one in several thousand, with much of the Earth’s surface being water or uninhabited land, which mitigates the risk further.
Interestingly, another piece from the Kosmos launch ended up on a New Zealand farm two days post-launch, highlighting the risks associated with space debris. This event raises questions about future incidents, as the number of objects in low-Earth orbit has surged, particularly due to satellite constellations like SpaceX’s Starlink. Many of these satellites are designed to burn up within five years of their launch, although this is not always the case. Instances have emerged where fragments of SpaceX crafts landed in inhabited regions, prompting changes in rocket reentry strategies to reduce risks associated with space debris.
Experts express growing concern over larger satellite constellations, like Starlink’s 7,000 satellites and increasing future launches. Samantha Lawler, an astronomer at the University of Regina in Canada, notes that if pieces are falling from these numerous satellites, the potential for hazardous incidents increases significantly. The risk posed by space debris is complex; while it holds the potential to injure someone, the individual risk is still considered relatively low.
In conclusion, Kosmos 482’s impending crash serves as a reminder of the larger issue of space debris and the challenges it poses as humanity increases its footprint in space. With more probes, satellites, and other objects entering low-Earth orbit, managing this growing problem will be paramount in keeping Earth’s inhabitants safe from falling space debris. As the situation with Kosmos 482 unfolds, it will likely set precedents for future handling and monitoring of space objects to mitigate risks associated with their eventual descent.
