Florida voters will be deciding whether to expand abortion access through a proposed constitutional Right to Abortion Initiative in November. Amendment 4, which got on the ballot through citizen petition, has sparked controversy and debate. The Financial Impact Estimating Conference (FIEC) examined the potential impact of the amendment, ultimately determining that it could result in significantly more abortions and fewer live births in Florida. There is also uncertainty regarding whether the state would be required to subsidize abortions using public funds, potentially leading to additional costs that could negatively impact the state budget.
Governor Ron DeSantis, who opposed the Amendment and criticized the Florida Supreme Court for allowing it on the ballot, influenced the FIEC’s decision by stacking the conference. The Conference updated their view on July 15, 2024, stating that the amendment could have financial implications for the state. Michael New, a consultant hired by DeSantis, claimed that abortion rights could lead to reduced fertility and ultimately impact Florida’s credit rating. However, experts like former Moody’s Senior Vice President Bill Harrington dismissed these claims, stating that there is no evidence that state funding of abortions weakens the credit rating.
Despite the debate surrounding the potential impact of the Amendment on Florida’s credit rating, it is important to note that Florida is currently part of the S&P AAA Club. This group includes several states with varying abortion laws and policies, indicating that abortion rights do not have a direct impact on credit ratings. The main factors that could potentially impact Florida’s credit rating are unfunded pension liabilities and rising insurance costs due to climate risks. Additionally, exposure to PFAS substances in the environment may also impact fertility rates in women, further complicating the relationship between reproductive rights and credit ratings.
While there is no direct evidence linking Amendment 4 and Florida’s credit rating, there are complex indirect impacts that could affect credit rating variables in rating models. Factors such as pension liabilities, insurance costs, and environmental exposures play a significant role in determining a state’s credit rating. Ultimately, the decision to expand abortion access in Florida will have broader implications beyond reproductive rights, potentially influencing the state’s overall economic and financial health.
The focus on raising fertility rates by legislating women’s reproductive choices could have unintended consequences for Florida’s credit rating. Additionally, efforts to protect the environment and reduce exposure to harmful substances like PFAS may be crucial in maintaining overall reproductive health in the state. As voters prepare to make their decision on Amendment 4, it is essential to consider the multifaceted impacts on public health, the economy, and the state’s financial stability.
