President-elect Donald Trump’s triumph has reignited hope for Brazil’s former leader Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently barred from seeking public office until 2030. Bolsonaro is often dubbed the “Trump of the Tropics,” and his supporters are actively exploring legal and political avenues to overturn the ruling that prevents him from running for the presidency. They are placing their hopes on Trump’s influence to exert pressure on the Brazilian government to allow Bolsonaro to challenge for the presidency in 2026.
Despite the prohibition on Bolsonaro running for office, his son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, sees Trump’s victory as a positive development for democracy in Brazil and worldwide. Bolsonaro’s allies have criticized the incoming Trump administration, with some aligning themselves more closely with China to counter Trump’s influence. Bolsonaro argues that this move will only lead to further political polarization and distract from addressing pressing issues like healthcare, education, security, and employment, echoing the reasons behind the Democratic Party’s defeat in the U.S. elections.
Bolsonaro views the ideological alignment between himself and Trump on freedom of speech issues as a vital factor in a potential return to politics. The relationship between some Republicans and Lula’s administration has been marked by limited engagement due to differing ideologies. Historically, the Republican Party has maintained closer ties with right-leaning Brazilian leaders like Bolsonaro. Recent opinion polls suggest Bolsonaro’s rising popularity, with hypothetical matchups against Lula showing close margins despite his current ineligibility to run.
In March 2022, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court ordered the suspension of messaging app Telegram and blocked accounts spreading false information. Elon Musk criticized these acts as censorship, leading to a temporary suspension of X’s operations in Brazil before resuming services after complying with court mandates. Bolsonaro’s popularity has been steadily increasing, and the right-wing’s chances in Brazil are seen as strong following Trump’s victory, with the 2024 elections favoring right-wing candidates. Despite legal constraints, Bolsonaro’s supporters believe that Trump’s win has rejuvenated their hopes for his 2026 candidacy.
Political analyst Sandra Bronzina believes that Trump’s electoral triumph does not bode well for Lula’s administration in Brazil. She highlights Lula’s struggling economic policies leading to rising inflation, debt, and a weakened currency, impacting the daily lives of voters. The right wing in Brazil is expected to be strengthened by Trump’s victory, paving the way for potential success in the 2026 elections. While Bolsonaro faces legal obstacles, his supporters are optimistic about his chances for re-election, buoyed by recent political developments and growing dissatisfaction with the current administration.
