Ukraine has agreed to a preliminary proposal put forth by the Trump administration for a 30-day ceasefire, contingent on Russia’s acceptance of the terms, as a step towards ending the war. However, concerns have been raised about Putin’s trustworthiness in upholding international agreements, given his track record of violating agreements intended to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty. Past agreements, such as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, have been violated by Putin through the annexation of Crimea and support for separatist forces in the Donbas region.
Security experts caution that Putin may not be reliable in adhering to any peace deal with Ukraine without serious security commitments from the West. The issue lies in Russia only understanding win-lose outcomes and the need for them to see themselves as losers in the war to prevent future attacks on Ukraine. Calls have been made for measures that would hinder Russia’s ability to violate agreements more than the enticement of unchecked opportunities. There is skepticism about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, with doubts about Putin’s commitment to upholding any future agreement.
Experts have highlighted that securing Ukraine’s future does not rely on trusting Putin, but on creating conditions that would make it more challenging for Russia to engage in clandestine operations across the world. Putin’s past actions, such as election interference, cyber warfare, espionage, and destabilization campaigns, indicate a constant confrontation in Russian military thinking. Lessons from previous failed agreements, like the Treaty of Versailles post-WWI, underscore the importance of economic reconciliation in rebuilding Ukraine, similar to the reconstruction efforts in Germany and Japan after WWII.
Negotiations between the Trump administration and Putin face numerous obstacles, including disagreements over occupied territory, international aid for Ukraine, recognition of occupied lands, and the return of prisoners of war and abducted children. While Ukraine may outline concessions, experts believe Putin is unlikely to make any significant concessions given his perceived strong position. Russia’s military and economic preparation prior to the invasion of Ukraine have put them in a favorable combat potential compared to Ukraine who lacks adequate resources.
Putin’s distrust of Washington and his strategic objectives for Ukraine as a red line between Russia and the West indicate that he may not be willing to agree to a ceasefire that could give Ukraine and NATO a strategic pause to re-arm. The unpredictability of President Trump further adds to the uncertainties during negotiations, making it challenging to determine whether Putin can be held accountable or trusted in future agreements. To deter Putin from further aggression, maintaining a strong NATO, increasing defense spending, and developing counter-strategies are seen as essential steps to ensure peace and prevent future invasions. Ultimately, experts believe that Putin will not leave eastern Ukraine given the significance of the region in Russia’s geopolitical control.
