Experts analyzing Iran’s atomic weapons negotiation strategy have cautioned Trump-era negotiators against repeating the mistakes of President Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal. President Trump, who withdrew from this deal in 2018, criticized it as a “horrible one-sided deal” that failed to prevent Iran from pursuing an atomic bomb. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was intended to restrict Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, experts argue that it inadvertently allowed Iran to continue its nuclear ambitions while extracting significant concessions from the U.S. and its allies.
United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) published a report detailing ten negotiating tactics employed by Iran to manipulate discussions, ensuring they retain their nuclear capabilities while gaining advantages in negotiations. The report, titled “Iran’s Version of the ‘Art of the Deal,’” outlines strategies such as deception, ambiguities, and appealing to historical grievances. These tactics often create an illusion of political pluralism and exploit divisions in Western alliances, effectively enabling Iran to negotiate from a position of strength.
According to UANI, Iran’s tactics include promising vague rewards to keep negotiations alive without tangible commitments, creating false narratives around lucrative business opportunities post-sanctions, and issuing exaggerated threats to generate fear and hinder decisive U.S. policymaking. These strategies aim to prolong discussions, avoiding real consequences while presenting superficial gestures that imply cooperation. The report also notes that Iran skillfully utilizes media narratives to promote itself as a reasonable partner, further complicating its negotiations with the West.
As the Trump administration engages in indirect talks with Iran, the potential for renewed discussions highlights the complexities of the Iran-U.S. relationship. Reports suggest upcoming negotiations could see Iran reevaluating its position with European allies before assessing the possibility of re-imposing U.N. sanctions. Experts caution that Tehran’s willingness to engage with multiple stakeholders reflects a strategic maneuver to weaken the unified stance of Western nations, especially between the U.S. and Europe.
UANI argues that the ultimate goal of Iran’s leadership, particularly under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remains to undermine U.S. interests globally, persisting in a narrative that fosters anti-American sentiment. This approach is driven by Khamenei’s longstanding strategy of promoting a “West without the U.S.” Furthermore, UANI contends that Iran’s proposals simply recycle past concessions made under Obama, aiming to deflect any new incentives or risks.
In the ongoing negotiation landscape, President Trump appears committed to a diplomatic resolution with Iran but has not ruled out military options if discussions fail. He claims a significant shift could happen, stating his administration aims to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear capabilities while criticizing the Biden administration’s approach as ineffective. Business and diplomatic strategies aside, the expert consensus underscores the necessity of a vigilant and nuanced approach to grappling with Iran’s calculated manipulation in future negotiations.
