The battle over abortion in Arizona and Florida has taken center stage in the national spotlight, raising questions about how it will impact the presidential contests in those states. Despite broad support for abortion rights, President Biden is trailing in Arizona by 5 points and Trump is comfortably ahead by 9 points in Florida. However, the issue of abortion does not seem to be as influential in these states as people’s views on finances and immigration.
In Arizona, there is a perception that Biden has been “too easy” on migrants, leading many to believe that recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life worse in the state. Trump’s policies, which prioritize the interests of current U.S. citizens over recent immigrants, are resonating with voters who feel that Biden’s policies do not do the same. This issue may be particularly harmful to Biden among key demographic groups, including Hispanic voters.
Hispanic voters in Arizona, like voters overall, are dissatisfied with the economy and view Trump as a better choice to improve their financial well-being. This sentiment, combined with concerns about the border and recent immigrants, is contributing to Trump’s lead in the state. Additionally, Arizonans overwhelmingly feel the impact of inflation, further bolstering Trump’s position.
In Florida, where Trump leads comfortably, the abortion issue is not the driving force behind the presidential race. Support for abortion access is high in both states, but it does not necessarily translate into support for Biden. Trump has distanced himself from the issue to some extent, and voters are more focused on the economy and inflation when making their decisions.
The main dynamic shaping the race in both states appears to be whether or not voters are angry about the overturn of Roe v. Wade, rather than simply dissatisfied. In Arizona, habitual voters are more likely to be motivated by the abortion issue, while Democrats are generally more energized by the issue compared to Republicans and independents. Biden is facing challenges in mobilizing parts of his Democratic base, while other Democratic candidates in Arizona and Florida are faring better in potential match-ups.
Overall, the abortion issue is not enough to significantly alter the situation in either state, where Trump maintains a lead. The surveys conducted in May 2024 show that issues related to economics, immigration, and voter loyalty are playing a more significant role in shaping the presidential contests in Arizona and Florida.
