A new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News shows that the Liberals are leading the federal election race, with 42 percent of Canadians surveyed indicating they would vote for the party. This is a decrease of four points from the previous week, marking the first time the Liberals have lost ground since the election began. The Conservatives have narrowed the gap, with 36 percent of surveyed Canadians indicating they would vote for the party, an increase of two points. The New Democrats have seen a slight decrease in support, with 11 percent of decided voters backing the party, while the Green Party and Bloc Quebecois have also seen small declines.
As the campaign reaches its halfway point, the share of undecided voters has risen to 11 percent. Liberal Leader Mark Carney is favored to win the English-language debate, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is expected to win the French-language debate. Since the start of the campaign, 33 percent of Canadians stated they are more likely to vote for the Liberals, compared to 25 percent for the Conservatives. On the other hand, 33 percent indicated they are less likely to vote for the Conservatives now than they were three weeks ago, while 27 percent are turning away from the Liberals. Only nine percent of surveyed voters stated they are more likely to support the NDP.
The poll also indicates that there is a growing desire for a change in leadership, with 56 percent of respondents stating it is time for a new leader to take over, compared to 44 percent who believe the Liberals deserve re-election. When asked which party leader would make the best prime minister, Canadians still favor Carney over Poilievre, although Carney’s support has slightly declined. Poilievre appears to be gaining momentum on questions relating to handling U.S. President Donald Trump and protectionist trade policies, with an increasing number of Canadians seeing him as a strong negotiator.
Affordability and the cost of living remain the top issues in the campaign, with 41 percent of Canadians stating this is their main concern. U.S.-Canada relations, which was previously a top issue, has now dropped behind the economy, health care, and housing. The Conservatives are now seen as the party best equipped to handle affordability, while the Liberals lead in the area of U.S. relations. This shift has potentially contributed to the Conservatives’ newfound momentum in the campaign. The poll also asked respondents what the next government should do to help Canadians impacted by Trump’s tariffs, with lowering income taxes and addressing affordability being the top responses.
Overall, the poll provides insights into the preferences and concerns of Canadian voters as the federal election campaign unfolds. The findings suggest that there is a desire for change in leadership and a focus on issues such as affordability, U.S.-Canada relations, and negotiating with President Trump. The evolving dynamics of the campaign, including shifts in party support and voter sentiment, will likely continue to shape the outcome of the election as it progresses towards election day.
