A potential hurricane named Rafael is expected to form in the Caribbean during the 2024 hurricane season. The storm is projected to hit western Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane and bring heavy rain and the possibility of mudslides. The US National Weather Service predicts that Tropical Storm Rafael will strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches Jamaica before moving towards the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This could lead to heavy rainfall in the Florida Keys and parts of the southeastern US, with Jamaica and Cuba potentially facing up to 9 inches of rain, resulting in flooding.
The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the capital, Havana, and provinces in the eastern part of the country as a precaution. Cuba is already dealing with an acute energy crisis, with parts of the island experiencing prolonged power outages due to decrepit infrastructure and fuel shortages for oil-fired power stations. The storm comes on the heels of Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall on the eastern side of the island two weeks prior, further complicating recovery efforts. The tropical depression that could develop into Hurricane Rafael is currently south of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of 35mph and moving north at 9mph.
Forecasters predict that the storm will likely become a hurricane before reaching western Cuba, potentially on Tuesday or Wednesday. The core of the hurricane is expected to pass west of Florida, and atmospheric conditions are not favorable for Rafael to become a life-threatening weather system as it moves toward the US coast over the Gulf of Mexico. The 2024 hurricane season has shown above-average activity, with 10 hurricanes and two major storms, Helene and Milton, causing destruction in Florida and North Carolina. The potential formation of Hurricane Rafael would make it the 11th hurricane of the season.
Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach notes that having 11 Atlantic hurricanes by the first week of November is a rare occurrence, with only seven seasons on record reaching this level of activity. The appearance of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in November is also unusual, as only four hurricanes have been recorded in this region during this month since 1966. As the storm approaches, residents in the affected areas are advised to stay informed about evacuation orders and emergency procedures to ensure their safety. The NHC will continue to monitor the development of Tropical Storm Rafael and provide updates on its progression and potential impact on the region.
