In July, the number of migrants unlawfully crossing the U.S. southern border has continued to drop significantly, approaching a level that would require officials to lift a partial ban on asylum claims imposed by President Biden. Internal government data shows that July is on track to see the fifth consecutive monthly decrease in migrant apprehensions along the U.S.-Mexico border, reaching the lowest level in illegal immigration since the fall of 2020 during the Trump administration. President Biden invoked presidential authority in early June to suspend the entry of most migrants entering the U.S. illegally, effectively shutting off access to the American asylum system outside of official ports of entry.
Illegal border crossings had already been decreasing before President Biden’s action, and they further plummeted after the order took effect, reaching a three-year low in June. However, the asylum crackdown would be lifted if the 7-day average of daily migrant apprehensions between ports of entry fell to 1,500, as stipulated by the DHS regulation implementing Mr. Biden’s proclamation. The recent average of daily illegal crossings counted in the regulation’s calculations reached roughly 1,650, excluding crossings by unaccompanied children who are not from Mexico. If the 7-day average of daily illegal crossings dips to 1,500, the regulation says the asylum proclamation would be discontinued 14 days thereafter.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials do not anticipate the immediate deactivation of the partial ban on asylum requests, as they believe illegal crossings are currently plateauing. However, they acknowledged the possibility of reaching the 1,500 trigger and have made internal preparations for that occurrence. If Mr. Biden’s proclamation is suspended, CBP would aim to place migrants in expedited deportation proceedings instead of releasing them with notices to appear in immigration court. The current situation at the southern border reflects a significant decrease in migrant apprehensions compared to late last year when illegal crossings reached a quarter of a million in December, the highest monthly total on record.
While the decrease in migrant crossings can be partly attributed to the Mexican government’s migration crackdown and the summer temperatures making the journey more perilous, U.S. officials noted that President Biden’s move to partially shut down asylum processing has led to a more acute decline. The proclamation has facilitated the deportation of more migrants, reducing the releases that authorities believe incentivize migration. Some groups, such as unaccompanied children, medically vulnerable migrants, and those with appointments at legal entry points, are exempt from the partial asylum ban. However, not everyone is being deported promptly, and some migrants disqualified from asylum are allowed to stay due to diplomatic and logistical constraints.
Progressive advocacy groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union, have strongly criticized President Biden’s asylum policy, arguing that it violates U.S. and international refugee law. Theresa Cardinal Brown, a senior adviser at the Bipartisan Policy Center and former government immigration official, highlighted that the legality of Mr. Biden’s actions is still uncertain. She noted that the drop in releases under the policy is influencing migrants’ decisions in the short-term, signaling that a sufficient number of people being denied entry affects others considering the same move. Overall, the situation at the U.S. southern border represents a significant shift from the high levels of illegal crossings seen late last year, with various factors contributing to the current decrease in apprehensions.
