The existing temporary trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine is on the verge of expiration, with the deadline set for June 5. This has caused considerable unrest among EU member states, particularly during a recent closed-door meeting of the agriculture ministers. Representatives expressed their dissatisfaction with the European Commission’s inability to finalize a new trade arrangement with Ukraine, despite having ample time to negotiate. Concerns were raised regarding the lack of progress; several ministers stressed that establishing a stable, long-term trade agreement should have been a primary focus of the Commission, which holds exclusive rights to negotiate such deals.
Currently, trade between the EU and Ukraine is governed by Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs). These measures, implemented in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, temporarily eliminate all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports. However, this arrangement is set to expire soon and cannot be renewed, having already undergone one extension. The Commission has been making unsuccessful attempts since late 2024 to establish a formal replacement for the ATM scheme. Polish agriculture minister Czesław Siekierski confirmed that discussions with Ukraine are ongoing but remain in the early stages, manifesting significant concern among member states regarding the lack of actionable outcomes.
In light of the stalled negotiations, the Commission has prepared interim measures to serve as a temporary solution until a comprehensive review of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) is completed. These transitionary arrangements have been cautiously approved by EU ambassadors but are seen as weaker and less definitive than the existing ATM scheme. Commissioner Christophe Hansen emphasized the need for predictability in agricultural trading to ensure stakeholders on both sides can plan effectively. The Commission aims to move beyond temporary solutions and establish a more stable trading framework that accommodates the interests of both the EU and Ukraine.
Agricultural trade remains a particularly sensitive issue, especially as the ATMs have prompted backlash in several EU countries. Nations like France and Poland have witnessed protests from farmers facing challenges due to the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products. In response to these concerns, the Commissioner assured that the new transitional measures would not introduce new quotas or increase import volumes. The focus is on finding a balanced trade arrangement that provides clarity and stability for everyone involved.
Amid these discussions, Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitalii Koval, urged the EU to expedite the establishment of a new free trade mechanism. He echoed that such an arrangement should be based on concrete figures, reminding the EU of Ukraine’s critical situation during ongoing Russian assaults that have significantly strained its infrastructure. Koval emphasized the vital role of agriculture in Ukraine’s economy, noting that it accounts for a disproportionate amount of the country’s economic output compared to the EU, with many citizens employed in the sector. He cited a substantial drop in available farmland due to occupation and highlighted the staggering economic losses suffered, totaling €83.9 billion.
Koval argued for Ukraine’s need to maintain the same access levels to the EU market as provided under previous agreements. He highlighted the deep interdependence between Ukraine and the EU, noting that two-thirds of Ukraine’s imports originate from EU member states. Furthermore, he conveyed his ongoing engagement with EU farmers’ groups to address their concerns, stressing the importance of a mutually beneficial future agreement that supports Ukraine’s agricultural sector while considering the economic conditions of EU farmers. This conversation underscores the urgency for the EU to act swiftly to prevent further disruptions in trade as tensions escalate amidst the ongoing conflict.
