The discussion surrounding the European Union’s approach to the membership applications of Ukraine and Moldova is filled with complexities and geopolitical ramifications. Since the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, both nations have presented their candidacies nearly simultaneously. However, the EU’s reservations about separating their applications have intensified due to Hungary’s persistent veto on Ukraine’s ambitions. Hungary’s stance could significantly undermine Kyiv’s prospects at a critical time, especially as EU membership is viewed through the lens of providing essential security guarantees in the face of Russian aggression.
As Moldova gears up for parliamentary elections on September 28, the urgency for a unified approach to membership becomes even more pronounced. By advancing its EU candidacy, Moldova seeks to counter the hybrid threats posed by Moscow, which aims to destabilize the nation and polarize its social landscape. Danish minister for European affairs, Marie Bjerre, emphasized the need for a collective movement towards enlargement, suggesting that any delay would unfairly leave Ukraine isolated amid its ongoing conflict. Both Ukraine and Moldova have technically met the preliminary criteria to initiate the first cluster of accession negotiations, dealing with critical issues such as democracy and security. However, progress hinges on the unanimous agreement of EU member states, which has been impeded by Hungary’s veto.
Denmark, currently holding the EU Council’s rotating presidency, has committed to exerting “maximum pressure” on Hungary to resolve this stalemate, which has persisted for over a year. Hungary has cited various justifications for its veto, including war-related concerns and energy security, even initiating a national consultation for public opinion to justify its delay. Meanwhile, frustration grows among other member states; Swedish official Jessica Rosencrantz and French minister Benjamin Haddad openly criticized Hungary’s actions as “unacceptable,” emphasizing that the blockade negatively impacts countries like Moldova, which are diligently pursuing their reform agendas.
Caught in this geopolitical tug-of-war, Moldova’s leadership remains cautiously optimistic yet acutely aware of the implications of being coupled with Ukraine in the accession dialogue. Deputy Prime Minister Cristina Gherasimov articulated the necessity of keeping Ukraine and Moldova in tandem to ensure regional stability, which is critical not just for its own accession but also for the broader security of the region. The fear among member states is that decoupling the two applications could inadvertently legitimize Hungary’s veto, which would send a disheartening message about Europe’s stance on unity and support in the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also voiced concern over potential decoupling, highlighting the risk of undermining a cohesive European approach toward security guarantees. The geopolitical landscape weighs heavily on discussions about EU enlargement, with figures like Germany’s Gunther Krichbaum arguing that a united Europe serves as a formidable response to challenges posed by authoritarian regimes. Meanwhile, Polish representatives acknowledge that while Moldova has not formally requested a decoupling, they remain open to discussions when feasible, balancing the need to send positive signals to Ukraine without compromising Moldova’s aspirations.
In the aftermath of a ministerial meeting, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos commended both Ukraine and Moldova for their efforts and underscored the urgency of resolving the deadlock. She elaborated on how EU enlargement is now entangled in a larger geopolitical struggle between democracies and authoritarianism, evident in both the overt aggression in Ukraine and the subtler influences affecting Moldova. A recent Eurobarometer survey revealed that public support for enlargement remains robust, particularly for Ukraine, suggesting that there is a basis for renewed momentum in EU accession talks, despite the significant challenges that lie ahead.
