Despite recent initiatives aimed at enhancing European defense production, a new report by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel underscores the bloc’s significant vulnerabilities and its reliance on the United States for advanced military equipment. Trade data reflects a stark increase in weapon imports to Europe, rising from €3.1 billion between 2019 and 2021 to €7.9 billion from 2022 to 2024, with the U.S. being a dominant supplier. Guntramm Wolff, Bruegel’s senior fellow, highlights Europe’s existing capacities to produce traditional military assets like tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, yet raises alarms over the continent’s insufficient capabilities regarding more advanced technologies, such as hypersonic missiles and next-generation aircraft.
Research from Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy provides a stark picture of European defense capabilities. They find a critical dependency on U.S. technology particularly in areas requiring cutting-edge development, like artificial intelligence-integrated systems. While Europe has incrementally increased its arsenal, notably in artillery, these gains pale against urgent demands. For instance, Europe possessed only 1,627 main battle tanks in 2023, while projections indicate a need for between 2,359 and 2,920 in the coming years, depending on various scenarios. Current air defense resources are also lacking, with stock levels far below necessary thresholds. The report emphasizes that substantial investments in research and development (R&D) are crucial, especially as Europe trails behind global competitors in defense innovation.
In 2023 alone, Europe invested €13 billion in military R&D, a far cry from China’s €21 billion and the staggering €145 billion allocated by the United States. The European Commission’s recent ‘Defence Readiness 2030’ initiative aims to mobilize up to €800 billion to address critical defense shortcomings. This follows NATO’s expectation for its member states to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2032 or 2035—a target that Spain has labeled “unreasonable.” However, the Bruegel report warns against the assumption that increased military funding will automatically enhance military capabilities. The researchers stress that merely increasing budgets will not suffice if the existing defense industrial base cannot adequately manage the resulting demands.
Moving forward, the report points to the necessity of transforming funding into actionable military capabilities through strategic and operational planning. The fragmentation of the European defense market hampers efficient resource allocation and cost-effectiveness; therefore, greater integration is essential. Alongside efforts to reform procurement processes, enhancing military planning is viewed as critical to meeting contemporary security challenges. Dr. Alexandr Burilkov from the GLOBSEC GeoTech Center emphasizes that comprehending modern warfare in the context of peer conflict presents as significant a challenge as money allocation.
Despite the substantial proposed budget, the researchers estimate that even the €800 billion may not suffice to meet urgent needs such as developing missile capabilities, sourcing modern tanks, and upgrading air defense systems. This highlights a fundamental gap in the strategic understanding and prioritization of defense investments across Europe. The European Union and its member states must prioritize a comprehensive approach to defense that encompasses increased funding, improved industrial capabilities, and cohesive military planning to effectively address the complex security landscape they face.
Ultimately, the Bruegel report serves as a clarion call for European policymakers to reevaluate their defense strategies. It underscores the necessity not just for increased financial commitments but for a cohesive strategic framework that can convert investment into tangible military readiness and technological advancement. Without addressing these underlying issues, Europe risks remaining vulnerable in a rapidly evolving security environment, further complicating its relationships with key allies like the United States while compromising its own defense autonomy.
