Europe’s rising right-wing parties are expected to make historic gains in the upcoming European elections, with their promises to slash migration figures, slow down climate action, and defend national sovereignty resonating with voters across the continent. However, these parties are currently deeply divided on critical issues such as foreign policy, EU support for Ukraine, and the rule of law. Despite these divisions, experts believe that these right-wing parties could build greater discipline and unity following the elections to advance their agenda on the EU stage, potentially challenging the dominance of progressive, pro-European parties in Brussels.
In the European Parliament, right-wing parties are split into two political families: the radical, far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the traditionally softly Eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group. The ID group is expected to gain significant seats in the upcoming elections, hosting parties such as Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, Geert Wilders’ Dutch Party for Freedom, Matteo Salvini’s Lega, and Alternative for Germany. On the other hand, the ECR group includes parties like Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), Spain’s Vox, and the Sweden Democrats. These groups have different stances on issues like migration and EU integration, making it challenging to form a united right-wing bloc in the European Parliament.
Parties within both the ID and ECR groups have shifted in their degrees of Euroscepticism in recent years, with some softening their anti-EU rhetoric while others remain strongly critical of the European institutions. For example, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National has evolved and is no longer necessarily against the European Union, instead advocating for the defense of French sovereignty through reforms. Similarly, Alternative for Germany has also shifted its stance on the EU. However, parties like the Sweden Democrats and the Finns Party within the ECR group have expressed intentions to leave the EU and have strong Eurosceptic views, highlighting the diversity of opinions within these right-wing parties.
On issues like Ukraine and Russia, Europe’s hard right parties are also deeply divided. While some parties within the ID group, like Bulgaria’s Vazrazhdane party, have pro-Russian tendencies and historic ties to the Kremlin, others are trying to distance themselves from Russia. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National has attempted to shed its pro-Russian image and now supports Ukraine’s efforts against Russian aggression, despite opposing Ukraine’s EU accession. Hungary’s Fidesz party’s possible entry into the ECR group could complicate matters due to its efforts to obstruct EU decisions on aid to Ukraine, potentially causing friction with other pro-Ukraine parties like Law and Justice (PiS) and the Finns Party.
Analysts predict that the upcoming European elections could trigger significant realignments within the European Parliament as right-wing parties seek to bolster their influence and collaborate with mainstream parties. Parties like Fidesz may join the ECR group, while Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia could form bridges with the mainstream center-right European People’s Party (EPP). The election of the European Commission President, which is driven by election results, could also impact how the right-wing parties operate in the parliament. Outgoing President Ursula von der Leyen may seek to work with ECR post-election, potentially breaking down traditional barriers between mainstream parties and the hard right.
