The situation in Gaza has led to a flurry of proposals on how to govern the territory post-war. President Trump’s plan involves the United States governing Gaza and expelling its residents, but it is unacceptable to Hamas and Arab partners. The Arab plan, on the other hand, suggests Palestinian technocrats managing Gaza within a wider Palestinian state. There are also Israeli proposals ranging from ceding some control to Palestinians to occupying the entire territory, but none of these plans find common ground due to fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas, as well as Arab countries.
The root of the problem lies in the fact that Israel desires a Hamas-free Gaza, while Hamas wishes to retain its military wing that led the October 2023 attack on Israel. Despite various proposals since January, Israelis and Palestinians remain at an impasse regarding Gaza’s future. This raises the risk of renewed conflict. The six-week cease-fire that technically expired in March is being informally maintained while negotiations continue. Hamas wants Israel to accept a postwar plan before releasing more hostages, while Israel insists on hostages being released before an agreement on Gaza’s future.
Efforts at mediation are ongoing, with delegations from both Hamas and Israel engaging in discussions about Gaza’s future in places like Egypt and Qatar. Some progress has been reported by American envoy Adam Boehler, who has been negotiating directly with Hamas. However, any breakthrough is still expected to be weeks away. The longer the impasse persists without hostages being released, the greater the likelihood of Israel returning to battle. Israeli analysts suggest that the current trajectory could lead to an Israeli occupation of Gaza, which would have significant consequences for both Palestinians and Israel, potentially resulting in a costly war of attrition.
The Arab alternative to Trump’s plan was announced in Egypt, proposing a transfer of power to a technocratic Palestinian government within Gaza. However, there are uncertainties regarding how Hamas would be removed from power and the condition of creating a Palestinian state, which a majority of Israelis oppose. The lack of agreement between Israelis and Palestinians on Gaza’s future continues to pose challenges for moving forward. Keeping hostage negotiations separate from the broader issue only adds to the complexity of the situation, with the risk of renewed violence looming in the absence of a viable solution.
