Former President Donald Trump has pledged not to cut Social Security and Medicare, but experts warn that his proposed policies, including a tax cut on Social Security payments, could deplete the programs’ funds sooner than expected. A new analysis released on Monday projected that Trump’s policy agenda would exhaust Social Security’s funds in just six years.
Trump and the Republican Party have publicly committed to protecting Social Security and Medicare in their platform if Trump wins the White House. However, Democrats have highlighted comments Trump made in March where he suggested being open to cutting entitlement programs, raising concerns about his intentions.
While Trump’s campaign has argued that he was referring to cutting waste and not the entitlement programs themselves, experts are concerned that his proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits would further strain the already struggling programs. Coupling this exemption with Trump’s other proposals, such as ending taxes on tips and overtime, hiking tariffs, and deporting undocumented immigrants, would lead to Social Security’s funds running out even quicker, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Tax experts also predict that Trump’s proposed tax cut on Social Security would provide minimal benefits to middle-class Americans while benefiting high earners the most. The projection estimates that Social Security recipients who earn between $32,000 and $60,000 annually would only save around $90, while those earning $5 million or more would receive $2,500.
Contrary to claims made by Trump’s camp, experts argue that it is his proposed mass deportations of undocumented immigrants that would negatively impact Social Security. Undocumented immigrants contribute billions of dollars to Social Security each year, and if they were deported, the program would lose out on a significant source of revenue, worsening its financial issues.
While Vice President Kamala Harris has not yet unveiled a specific proposal for Social Security, she has championed the program and supported legislation to expand it during her time in the Senate. Harris and other Democrats have raised concerns about Project 2025, a policy agenda document that suggests potential cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, but it has raised questions about his intentions regarding entitlement programs if reelected.
