The German national election is set to take place with the conservative Christian Democrats, led by Friedrich Merz, expected to unseat current Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Merz has indicated that he will not work with the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party if he takes office. The election has drawn attention from Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk, with Musk openly supporting the AfD as the solution to Germany’s economic troubles. This has led to accusations of interference in the election from Chancellor Scholz and other German politicians.
The AfD, despite facing criticism and controversy, is expected to see its best performance in an election yet, potentially becoming Germany’s second-largest political party by doubling its vote count since 2021. The party aims to capitalize on public fears surrounding migration and has focused on stricter immigration laws in response to the increasing number of migrants in Germany. The biggest issues in the election include the economy, security, and immigration, as voters blame past leaders for these challenges. Merz has shifted the CDU to the right on these issues to attract AfD-curious voters.
AfD’s stance on ending the war in Ukraine aligns with President Trump’s desires, calling for an end to security assistance to Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions on Russia. However, Merz and the CDU prioritize transatlanticism and view Russia as a security threat to Germany and Europe, standing in opposition to the AfD’s position. Merz has maintained a consistent lead in the polls for the past three years, with the CDU polling around 30%. Chancellor Scholz’s popularity has waned due to economic issues, with his government struggling to address post-pandemic inflation and stagnant growth.
Despite its popularity, the AfD has faced criticism and controversy, leading to Germany’s domestic intelligence agency placing the party under surveillance in 2021. Some members of the AfD have reported ties to neo-Nazi groups, contributing to the party’s designation as a suspected right-wing extremist group. Björn Höcke, a prominent member of the AfD’s extreme right wing, has been convicted multiple times for using Nazi rhetoric and symbols. The party’s state-level organizations are also under scrutiny, with some being considered as extremist groups or under investigation by authorities.
Germany’s Constitutional Court has only banned two political parties since 1949, highlighting the rarity of such actions. The upcoming election will likely shape the future of German politics, with the potential for a coalition government that excludes the AfD. While the AfD may not be part of the governing coalition, its success in mobilizing public opinion ensures that its positions will continue to influence public debates on key issues in Germany. The outcome of the election could determine Germany’s approach to economic, security, and immigration policies in the coming years.
