When world leaders convene in Washington, DC for the NATO 75th anniversary summit, all eyes will be on US President Joe Biden after his poor debate performance. Diplomats around the world were shocked and concerned by Biden’s showing at the CNN presidential debate, and they will be looking to see if he can prove himself as a viable competitor against former President Donald Trump. Many believe Trump poses a threat to the future of NATO due to his public criticism of the alliance and his suggestion that Russia should be allowed to do as they please to members who don’t meet defense spending targets.
The upcoming NATO summit is further complicated by questions surrounding Biden’s political future, as well as major political changes among key allies. The Labour Party recently took power in the United Kingdom, putting a new prime minister in place just days before the summit. In France, the second round of parliamentary elections could potentially result in a far-right prime minister, which would be a significant blow to President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition. This uncertainty adds additional pressure on Biden to perform well and maintain a sense of stability among allies.
While the Biden administration and the president himself have acknowledged that the debate was a difficult evening, they have downplayed its impact on allies. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized Biden’s leadership over the past three and a half years in dealing with common problems faced by democracies around the world. However, there will still be a spotlight on Biden at the NATO summit, with expectations for him to look, sound, and move in a way that conveys strength and competence.
During the highly choreographed summit, Biden will have numerous opportunities to interact with counterparts, including the North Atlantic Council meeting, formal bilateral meetings, and a leader’s dinner. He will be supported by key national security officials like Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Despite limited chances of a major blunder, concerns linger given Biden’s poor debate performance. The allies are not expected to raise this directly with Biden, but they will likely discuss it among themselves, which could impact perceptions leading up to Election Day.
The increased significance of this year’s NATO summit, marking the alliance’s 75th anniversary, adds to the pressure on Biden. There are concerns surrounding Trump’s conditional support of the alliance and whether he will use the summit as an opportunity to denounce NATO once again. The attention on Biden during the summit is seen as a double-edged sword by NATO diplomats, who appreciate the focus but are concerned that the substance of the summit may be overshadowed by the attention on the US president. The Biden administration has emphasized the importance of the summit and the strength of the alliance under Biden’s leadership in an attempt to shift the focus away from his debate performance.
Overall, the NATO summit will be a critical moment for Biden to demonstrate his leadership on the world stage and reassure allies of his commitment to the alliance. The spotlight on him following the debate performance will be intense, with expectations for him to perform well and project stability and strength. While concerns linger about potential missteps, Biden will be supported by a team of key officials and will have numerous opportunities to engage with counterparts throughout the summit. The significance of this year’s summit, coupled with the uncertainties facing key allies, adds to the pressure on Biden to deliver a successful performance and solidify his standing in the international community.
