As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, the focus has turned to Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facility at Fordow, located two hours from Tehran. Military analysts suggest that only the U.S.-developed 30,000-pound GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) possesses the capability to effectively neutralize the Fordow site, which is believed to have the potential to produce a nuclear warhead within days. Jonathan Ruhe, the Director of Foreign Policy for JINSA, elaborated on the intricacies of utilizing bunker buster munitions against a target as strategically significant as Fordow.
Bunker busters are sophisticated munitions engineered for penetrating various subterranean materials, including earth, rock, and concrete, utilizing gravity to reach their targets. Once the bomb strikes, it can either obliterate the facility or cause significant structural damage without complete destruction. While Israel holds various bunker busters—2,000-pound and 5,000-pound varieties—the U.S. is unique in its ownership of the MOP, specifically developed for heavily fortified sites like Fordow under President George W. Bush’s administration.
The challenge in targeting Fordow relates to its depth, with estimates ranging from 60 to 800 meters below the surface. The MOP boasts a penetration capability of approximately 200 feet, prompting discussions on military strategies that could involve the use of burrowing techniques by the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers. This operational method would entail sequentially dropping several MOPs to breach Fordow’s extensive underground defenses. However, the complexity of the facility’s layout and its narrow exit tunnels means that any airstrike would require precise timing and execution.
The feasibility of Israel independently striking Fordow has sparked debate among experts. Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated that effectively demolishing the site is primarily a task for U.S. military capabilities. While Ruhe acknowledged Israel’s proven tactical ingenuity, he suggested that achieving a successful operation without MOPs might involve unconventional approaches, such as a dangerous commando raid or the deployment of conventional 5,000-pound bunker busters by F-15s and F-35s.
Expectations for any operation against Fordow seem to diverge between the U.S. and Israel. The U.S. typically aims for total obliteration, while Israel may prioritize achieving a limited disruption of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. For instance, even if an airstrike fails to completely eliminate the Fordow facility, it could still achieve vital objectives, such as crippling the power supply to centrifuges or rendering the operational environment hostile for their continued function. Despite prior successes in targeting other critical elements of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Fordow remains a crucial component in the larger context of U.S. and Israeli efforts to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
