Increasing GPS Interference in Europe
Europe is experiencing a marked rise in GPS interference, particularly in strategic regions like the Baltic and Black Seas. This surge has raised concerns among various authorities, especially after recent incidents involving key figures such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose plane encountered GPS disruptions in Bulgarian airspace. The Bulgarian government suspects that these interferences are linked to Russian activities, echoing broader apprehensions regarding national security in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Since the outset of the war in Ukraine, since February 2022, Romania has reported a significant uptick in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) jamming incidents, particularly impacting EU aircraft and vessels. Paula Pinho, chief spokesperson for the European Commission, noted that these disruptions have been prevalent not only in Bulgaria but also across the eastern flank of Europe—from Finland to Cyprus. The concern extends beyond this year, as shown by previous incidents, including a 2022 case involving then British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, whose plane faced similar GPS issues near the Kaliningrad exclave.
Expert analysis suggests that Russia has established jamming facilities at critical points, such as the Kaliningrad region and along its borders with other Baltic states and Ukraine. Prof. David Stupples of City St George’s in London emphasized that these locations are strategic for Russia’s electronic warfare tactics. Furthermore, a letter from European ministers highlighted the alarming increase in GPS jamming and spoofing incidents since 2022, documenting a sharp rise in disruptions particularly in the Baltic Sea area from Russian and Belarusian sources.
The nature of GPS interference is multifaceted, primarily comprising two techniques: jamming and spoofing. Jamming creates disruptive radio noise, preventing GPS signals from being received by receivers, while spoofing involves the introduction of false signals to mislead the user about their actual position. These methods are categorized under hybrid warfare techniques, intended to harass and intimidate neighboring nations. Reports from Lithuania and Estonia indicate staggering increases in interference cases, with Lithuania logging over 1,000 incidents in just one month—an increase of 22-fold compared to the previous year.
While the potential risks of GPS interference are notable, pilots are trained to manage such scenarios effectively and have alternative navigation methods at their disposal. David Stupples reassured that backup systems, while not as precise as GPS, remain reliable. Ground radar systems operated by Eurocontrol help maintain safety for aircraft, mitigating risks even in suboptimal weather conditions. However, experts caution that severe impacts are more likely during complex situations, including inclement weather and high air traffic, although such cases represent less than 1% of total flights.
In response to this escalating issue, European authorities, including NATO, are taking proactive measures to enhance the resilience of navigation systems. Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius announced intentions to boost the number of satellites in low Earth orbit to improve detection of interference. Furthermore, 13 EU member states have urged the European Commission to devise strategies for countering GPS interference, advocating for alternative navigation systems and expediting the deployment of services resistant to disruptions. These coordinated efforts signify the seriousness with which European nations are approaching the challenge of ensuring secure navigation in an increasingly hostile environment.
