Since taking office as Vice President in January, JD Vance’s favorability ratings have shown a steady decline, reflecting a broader trend of increasing polarization in American politics. On his inauguration day, 43 percent of registered voters viewed Vance positively, while 51 percent saw him unfavorably, resulting in a net approval rating of -8. However, by early August, these numbers worsened further: only 42 percent viewed him favorably, and 54 percent unfavorably, worsening his net disapproval to -12 points. Other polls corroborate this downward trend; for instance, the Atlas poll recorded a drop from 49 percent favorability in January to 44 percent by July, with unfavorability rising to 55 percent. Similarly, YouGov/Economist data also illustrated a decline in favorability among voters.
The polarization of political sentiment seems to be a key driver behind this decline in Vance’s favorability. Polling data indicates that while his support is solidifying among conservatives, it is diminishing dramatically among moderates, liberals, younger voters, and communities of color. In YouGov/Economist polling, unfavorable views increased significantly among liberals and moderates, whereas conservative support only slightly rose to 80 percent. Civiqs polling exhibited similar results, with 89 percent of Republicans favorably viewing Vance while an overwhelming 95 percent of Democrats disapproved. Notably, older and white voters remain his strongest constituencies, although this support is not sufficient to offset declines from other groups.
Vance’s favorability is particularly challenged among crucial demographic segments such as independents and younger voters. While independents are traditionally considered swing voters, recent Civiqs data shows they are increasingly negative toward Vance. YouGov has reported a rise in unfavorable sentiment, marking a consequential shift in this pivotal group. Additionally, Vance faces particularly significant challenges among younger voters. Age group analyses depict a stark decline in approval among those aged 18 to 34, suggesting a generational gap deepening due to Vance’s policy positions and messaging that resonate poorly with a populace leaning more progressive.
Racial dynamics also play a significant role in Vance’s tarnished image. Civiqs data indicates a mere 10 percent of Black voters hold a favorable view of him, with 85 percent disapproving. This sentiment worsened from January to July, with the YouGov/Economist poll showing a drop in Black voter favorability from 26 percent to just 16 percent. Similarly, Hispanic voter sentiment has also trended negatively across both surveys, indicating a broader disengagement from communities of color. This shift in opinion could pose serious ramifications for Vance as he attempts to broaden his appeal beyond the traditional Republican base.
Compounding the issue for Vance is falling public support for former President Donald Trump, which has reached historic lows in recent times. Factors contributing to this decline include rising inflation and slowing job growth, alongside widespread interest in the release of Jeffrey Epstein-related files amidst significant public backlash regarding their handling. Vance’s loyalty to Trump may further complicate his standing, particularly as scrutiny around Trump intensifies. Although Vance has dismissed negative reports regarding Trump’s past ties with Epstein as a coordinated attack against the former president, the complexity of the allegations creates a challenging political environment for both figures.
The interplay of these dynamics illustrates how Vance’s political landscape has shifted since taking office. With a polarized electorate, underscored by declines among specific voter demographics, his favorability may continue to decrease, especially if issues affecting voter sentiment persist. As Vance navigates his vice presidency amid these challenges, the growing divides within the electorate and the scrutiny surrounding other Republican leaders will likely play a significant role in shaping his future political trajectory. The fallout from key allegations involving Trump, coupled with the failures to resonate across divergent ideological lines, places Vance at a crossroads that could redefine his role within the GOP and his potential for wider appeal moving forward.
