President-elect Donald Trump’s victory is expected to lead to a new U.S. Middle East policy that will significantly impact Israel’s conflict against Iran-backed terrorist organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Experts believe that Trump’s policy of respecting the Israeli government will allow Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pursue his strategy of victory over Iran and its proxies with U.S. support. Netanyahu’s defiance of threats from the Biden-Harris administration has been successful in eliminating key figures within these terrorist groups.
The Biden administration has faced criticism for its crackdown on Israel’s efforts to combat Hamas following a deadly attack in 2023. The U.S. has been accused of protecting Hamas and Hezbollah, allowing Iran to continue its pursuit of nuclear weapons and aggression against Israel. Israel’s hope is to see the U.S. lead a coalition to address the threats posed by a nuclear Iran and dismantle the Shiite axis endangering moderate states in the region.
President Trump’s reelection is seen as a significant opportunity for the Middle East to dismantle the Shiite axis and restore security to the region through peace agreements and alliances with Sunni nations. Israel has made progress in eliminating Hamas and is close to defeating Hezbollah. The Trump administration is expected to support Israel in its efforts to combat Iran and its proxies and create a regional alliance that challenges Iran and China.
Trump’s signature achievement in his first term was the Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries. Mideast experts believe that a second Trump term could have led to a diplomatic recognition agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The incoming administration is expected to represent a paradigm shift towards a strong Israel and a weakened Iran, challenging the two-state Palestinian solution as the guiding principle of policy.
The Islamist government of Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who supports Hamas, may face resistance from Trump. Erdoğan’s threats to invade Israel and support for Hamas have complicated relations with the U.S. Trump’s pro-Israel stance clashes with Erdoğan’s support for Hamas, leading to tensions between the two countries. The future of their relationship remains uncertain.
There are skeptics who believe that Trump may pressure Israel into ending its conflict prematurely with terrorist groups in Gaza and on its northern border. While Trump has expressed interest in negotiating a deal with Iran over its nuclear program, his policies may be driven by a focus on domestic issues and avoiding international entanglements. The Middle East may present challenges for Trump in his second term, but his approach towards resolving longstanding challenges in the region remains to be seen.
