In the wake of a devastating terrorist attack in Kashmir, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has engaged in extensive discussions with international leaders, aiming to garner support and build a comprehensive case against Pakistan, whom India blames for orchestrating the attack. This outreach, involving diplomats from over a hundred missions in New Delhi, is primarily focused not on de-escalating tensions but rather on solidifying a rationale for potential military action. Modi has explicitly warned of severe retaliation and the destruction of terrorist sanctuaries, albeit without directly naming Pakistan. As five days passed since the assault, India refrained from officially identifying a perpetrating group while still hinting at connections to Pakistan.
The Indian government’s tactics include highlighting Pakistan’s historical support for militant factions targeting India during briefings to diplomats, suggesting an ongoing investigation bolstered by intelligence data, including facial recognition links to Pakistani entities. Analysts suggest this could indicate either a cautious approach by India to collect substantial evidence before any retaliatory measures, or an increased confidence to act without needing international consent. The potential for military confrontation raises significant concerns, particularly given that both nations possess nuclear arsenals, which could escalate rapidly.
While global powers have called for restraint, most notably the United States, they appear distracted by various other geopolitical crises, leading India to interpret international discussions of support as implicit approval for its actions. The Trump administration has expressed robust support for India’s anti-terrorism efforts, yet the absence of a confirmed ambassador to India underscores a thesis of low priority for the region amid the broader global context. This situation mirrors responses during previous conflicts, notably the 2019 flare-up over Kashmir, which was triggered by an attack on Indian forces by the militant group Jaish-e-Muhammad.
In that earlier episode, the U.S. offered strong backing to India post-attack, only advocating for restraint after India initiated a cross-border airstrike. The aftermath of that incident led to a heightened cycle of military activity as Pakistan retaliated by downing an Indian jet, demonstrating how quickly tensions can boil over. Currently, as India contemplates a strong military response, analysts caution that the potential for escalation remains high, with both nations inclined to react offensively to provocations.
The recent attack’s murky details, with unclear claims of responsibility and involvement from lesser-known militant factions like the Resistance Front, complicate India’s decision-making process. The Indian government has pointed to Pakistan’s longstanding support for terrorist activities in Kashmir as the basis for its military posture, despite lacking specific evidence directly tying the current attackers to Pakistan. This reliance on historical patterns has raised eyebrows among international diplomats who question whether it is prudent to consider such a significant military response based on past ties.
Former Indian National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon notes that Modi may feel pressured to act militarily given previous retaliatory strikes in response to terrorism. However, he expresses skepticism that the situation will escalate beyond manageable hostility, indicating a general readiness among both nations to maintain a precarious status quo rather than trigger a full-scale conflict. As diplomatic dialogues continue, the overarching concern remains the potential for miscalculations in a nuclear context, alongside a rapidly changing global response landscape toward South Asia’s enduring tensions.
