The recent U.S. military operation, termed Operation Midnight Hammer, targeted three significant Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about a potential Iranian retaliation. According to Middle East and national security expert Jacob Olidort, while Iran may make attempts at retaliation, it currently lacks the military capabilities for any substantial escalation. Olidort described Iran’s current condition as one characterized more by threats than actionable plans, suggesting that any response would likely be limited to “face-saving efforts,” such as cyber-attacks or regional infrastructure strikes.
In the aftermath of these strikes, Iran has already responded by launching missiles at Israel, hitting various sites and injuring civilians. Despite the aggressive nature of this retaliation, the overall assessment from experts, including Olidort, indicates a lack of real military pressure to escalate further. He posits that this restraint is not due to a decline in Iran’s intention but rather its diminished capabilities, particularly after Israel’s previous strikes against military leadership and nuclear assets earlier in the month.
Tehran has publicly asserted its right to defend itself while expressing that the age of diplomacy has ended, signalling a hardened stance. President Trump, however, has advocated for peace in this geopolitical climate. Noteworthy is the apparent absence of Iran’s regional proxies coming to its defense following the U.S. strikes, an indication that the regime’s influence may be waning. This hesitation from allied militant groups suggests a potential shift in regional dynamics and Iran’s standing among its support networks.
On the front of nuclear capability, Olidort conveyed that the recent U.S. strikes may significantly impede Iran’s nuclear ambitions, potentially delaying progress by as much as a decade. He elaborated that earlier Israeli actions had already set back their nuclear program by two to three years, indicating a compounded effect from the latest U.S. military intervention.
The operation employed advanced B-2 stealth bombers to ensure precision in striking the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities. Gen. Dan Caine, during a Pentagon briefing, acknowledged that evaluation of the damage inflicted would take time, emphasizing that the level of destruction to any enriched nuclear material remains uncertain. This ambiguity adds a layer of complexity to the potential future interactions and negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
As the geopolitical situation evolves, the long-term implications of these military actions on regional security and Iran’s nuclear aspirations remain a focal point for analysts. Olidort’s assessments underscore concerns about Iran’s diminished capabilities and highlight a precarious balance in the ongoing confrontations in the Middle East, leaving the door open for further developments in diplomatic or military strategies in response to newly emerging realities.
