After President-elect Trump’s victory, Iran is now facing the challenge of dealing with a leader that they have been trying to assassinate for years. Tehran had reportedly interfered in the U.S. election in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, but with Trump’s win, they will have to contend with a U.S. leader who is a wild card. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) threatened to kill Trump in a video posted on Wednesday, emphasizing their intention to finish the job. Iran has long vowed revenge for the 2019 killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, and the regime is now facing potential economic challenges as Trump’s victory has caused its currency to tank.
Since Trump’s victory, Iran’s currency, the rial, hit an all-time low, highlighting the ongoing challenges the country faces in the Middle East. Despite U.S. sanctions, Iran has been able to export near-record amounts of oil and could potentially build a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks. With the return of maximum pressure from the U.S., Iran must be prepared for potential economic hardships and nuclear threats. After the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions, Iran has been seeking ways to navigate these challenges while continuing its support for proxies abroad.
Iran must also consider President Trump’s imminent presidency when contemplating how to escalate war with Israel. Israel has responded to Tehran’s strikes on Tel Aviv by attacking Iranian military sites, prompting harsh countermeasures from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump’s previous administration embraced Israel, scuttled the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA), and sought to normalize Jewish-Arab relations in the region. With Trump’s victory, Iran may face uncertainty about U.S. support for Israel and could be cautious in its actions. Others speculate that Trump’s anti-interventionist tendencies may lead to less support for Israel, making Iran’s approach to the conflict more complex.
While some experts suggest that Trump’s unpredictability may make Iran cautious in its actions, others raise concerns about the potential for military action to prevent Iran from crossing certain lines. Biden’s previous actions, such as deploying aircraft carrier groups near Israel, demonstrate a willingness to support Israel and deter Iran. The unpredictability of Trump’s approach may make Iran uncertain about the potential consequences of their actions in the region. Despite these uncertainties, Iran officially brushed off the suggestion that a Trump presidency could significantly impact the regime, emphasizing the country’s steady policies that do not change based on individuals.
Overall, Iran faces a complex geopolitical landscape with a new U.S. administration on the horizon. Trump’s victory has raised concerns about potential economic challenges and nuclear threats, as well as uncertainties surrounding U.S. support for Israel. The regime must navigate these challenges while considering the potential consequences of their actions in the region. The tensions between Iran and the U.S. are likely to continue, with both sides needing to carefully assess their strategies and responses in the face of changing political dynamics.
