In recent years, Victoria has often been overlooked by pundits and psephologists in the lead-up to federal elections despite being the second most populous state in Australia. This is largely due to its historical reliability as a Labor stronghold, with few seats being in play at election time. However, the upcoming federal election in 2025 may see a shift in Victoria’s political landscape, as discontent grows towards the state’s Labor government led by Jacinta Allan. The state has faced challenges, including prolonged lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic, rising youth crime, infrastructure issues, and population growth outpacing essential services.
The 2022 federal election saw a shift in voter sentiment in Victoria, with many traditionally safe Labor seats experiencing a significant drop in support for the party. While these seats remained with Labor due to high margins, the decrease in primary votes indicated a potential change in voter attitudes. The state’s population growth, fueled by migration and urban expansion, has strained infrastructure and services, leading to dissatisfaction among residents. The pandemic exacerbated these issues, creating a sense of unease and dissatisfaction that has translated into political sentiment.
The Allan government’s unpopularity and financial woes have further strained the Labor Party’s prospects in the federal election. With a minority government, Labor faces the challenge of holding onto its seats in Victoria to retain majority control. Dissatisfaction with the state government’s handling of various issues, including the Suburban Rail Loop project and lack of leadership charisma, has contributed to a decline in public support. This has hampered federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s campaign and may lead to electoral losses in key Victorian seats.
As the election nears, the political dynamics in Victoria remain uncertain, with swing seats becoming more competitive and voter sentiment unpredictable. Factors such as leadership credibility, economic conditions, and policy responses will shape the outcome of the election in the state. The influence of federal leaders, such as Peter Dutton, and the shifting preferences of Victorian voters will play a crucial role in determining the electoral landscape post-election. The possibility of minority government or power-sharing arrangements may become more prevalent as traditional party dominance weakens.
Historically, Victoria has been a stronghold for the Labor Party, with a few exceptions in conservative rule under leaders like Robert Menzies and Jeff Kennett. The state’s political culture has seen significant changes over the years, with shifts in party dominance and electoral patterns. The current challenges facing Victoria, such as infrastructure strain, population growth, and political discontent, suggest a potential reevaluation of the state’s political landscape. The upcoming federal election will test the resilience of Victoria’s political traditions and may signal the end of Labor’s longstanding dominance in the state.
