Moderna’s stock price has experienced a significant 27% increase in the past month, outpacing its peer BioNTech, which saw a 10% rise. The company’s success can be attributed to several key factors, including the recent approval of its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine by the U.S. FDA. This marks Moderna’s second commercial product after the success of its Covid-19 vaccine. The demand for Covid-19 vaccines has decreased, leading Moderna to focus on other products such as the RSV vaccine, which targets elderly individuals aged 60 and above. Moderna’s RSV vaccine has advantages over competitors, including easier administration and no reported cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome.
Additionally, Moderna recently announced positive results from phase two clinical trials of its experimental vaccine mRNA-4157 in partnership with Merck. Patients treated with this vaccine in combination with Keytruda showed a 49% reduction in cancer recurrence compared to those treated with Keytruda alone. These developments have boosted investor confidence and contributed to the company’s stock performance over the past month.
Despite experiencing fluctuations in its stock price, Moderna has seen strong overall gains of 50% since early January 2021. However, its performance in 2022 and 2023 was underwhelming compared to the S&P 500 index. Beating the market consistently has been challenging for individual stocks in recent years, highlighting the importance of a diversified investment approach like the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. In the face of uncertain macroeconomic conditions with high oil prices and elevated interest rates, investors are cautiously optimistic about Moderna’s future prospects.
While Moderna’s revenue declined by 64% year-over-year in 2023 due to lower demand for its Covid-19 vaccine, the company is expected to see growth in its revenue going forward. Factors such as recurring revenues from Covid-19 booster shots, positive clinical trial results for its skin cancer vaccine, the approval of its RSV vaccine, and a promising pipeline of experimental programs are all reasons to consider investing in Moderna. The company’s substantial cash holdings of over $8 billion also position it well for potential acquisitions in the biotech space.
Looking ahead, analysts forecast Moderna’s sales to rebound in 2025, with potential for continued growth in the future. The stock’s performance is likely to be influenced by developments related to its skin cancer vaccine and revenue trends for its RSV vaccine. While Moderna appears to have room for further growth, it is important to keep an eye on how the company’s peers are faring in comparison on key metrics. Peer comparisons can provide valuable insights for investors seeking to make informed decisions in the biotech sector.
