Mark Carney, who is seen as the front-runner in the Liberal leadership race, will face a significant test in a French-language debate in Montreal. As a newcomer to federal politics, Carney will be under scrutiny to show his ability to think on his feet in French. There have been criticisms of his French skills following his speech in Edmonton, and his performance in this debate will be crucial to demonstrate his proficiency to Liberal party members, especially in Quebec. With strong debaters such as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet in the mix, Carney will have to defend his position while the experienced Chrystia Freeland seeks to make a comeback.
Carney currently leads in endorsements, polling, and fundraising, making him a target for attacks from his rivals. Despite his strong position, Liberal strategist Carlene Variyan emphasizes that the campaign is unpredictable, especially with factors such as decisions from the U.S. president, Donald Trump, playing a role. Former government House leader Karina Gould and former Montreal MP Frank Baylis are also contenders in the race and will have the opportunity to make their pitches to the Liberal grassroots. Variyan highlights Gould as a candidate who could benefit the most from a successful debate performance, potentially challenging Freeland for the second spot in the race.
Following the French-language debate, an English-language debate is scheduled for the next day in Montreal. While debates typically do not have a significant impact on the outcome of leadership races, they can sometimes be make-or-break moments that influence the trajectory of a campaign. Political science professor emeritus Nelson Wiseman points to examples such as Jack Layton’s performance in a federal French debate in 2011, which helped elevate the NDP to official Opposition status. Wiseman also highlights the importance of the candidates’ get-out-the-vote machinery, which can play a crucial role in securing votes, especially in ridings where the Liberals may not traditionally perform well.
The method of selecting the Liberal leader, where each riding is worth 100 points, creates opportunities for candidates to target specific regions and demographics to gain support. Freeland, for instance, has been strategically engaging with dairy farmers in rural Quebec and rallying support from various communities in rural Alberta. This approach mirrors successful strategies from past leadership races, such as Belinda Stronach’s strong performance in Quebec ridings during the 2004 Conservative leadership race. Following the debates, advance voting for party members will open, leading up to the final announcement of the winner on March 9.
The outcome of the leadership race remains uncertain, as candidates like Carney, Freeland, Gould, and Baylis continue to vie for the support of Liberal party members. The debates serve as a platform for candidates to showcase their strengths, connect with voters, and potentially sway undecided members in their favor. The dynamic nature of the campaign, coupled with external factors like political developments in the U.S., adds an element of unpredictability to the race. Ultimately, the candidate who can effectively navigate these challenges, deliver compelling debate performances, and mobilize their base stands a chance to emerge victorious and lead the Liberal party into the future.
