NATO allies are preparing for a significant shift in responsibility for defending the continent, with the US emphasizing that the burden of security and defense has shifted to Europeans. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is attending his first meeting of NATO foreign affairs ministers in Brussels, where he is expected to stress the importance of Europeans taking more responsibility for conventional defense of Europe. European NATO officials have been told that burden shifting is necessary to keep the US engaged in the alliance, with the US possibly reducing the number of troops stationed in Europe.
There are concerns among allies about a potential decrease in the number of US troops stationed in Europe, with estimates ranging from 20,000 to 50,000 troops being withdrawn. The impact of the US unwinding its presence in Europe could be severe, but allies are expecting to be fully informed about any changes rather than learning from the media. The prospect of the US scaling back its presence as a result of negotiations with Russia is seen as particularly challenging for European diplomats, who emphasize the need for an orderly process if troop reductions are to occur.
While there have been tensions between the US and Europe under the Trump administration, NATO allies recognize the importance of US membership and commitment for NATO deterrence. European diplomats acknowledge that an increased focus on threats in the Indo-Pacific by the US may not be in its best interest, as its traditional allies in Europe offer a strong partnership that is beneficial economically and strategically. The demands set out by the Trump administration, including an increase in NATO spending to 5% of GDP, will require significant efforts from allies who have not yet reached the 2% spending target.
European leaders are aware of the need to assess and address gaps in their defense capabilities, with a focus on long-range capabilities, air defense, and investment in their armies. Meeting the increased spending targets set by the US will be challenging for countries such as Spain, Italy, and Belgium, but Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte highlighted the significant amount already spent by allies since 2017. The need for allies to spend considerably more than 3% of GDP to meet the targets set by the US is a daunting task that will require careful planning and coordination.
Despite the challenges and demands placed on NATO allies by the US administration, European diplomats are emphasizing the importance of unity within the alliance. They stress the value of having 32 strong democracies working together and purchasing goods from American companies. While discussions with the US may focus on the need for increased defense spending and burden sharing, European leaders are also looking to maintain a strong transatlantic partnership that benefits both sides. The upcoming NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels will be an opportunity for dialogue and coordination as allies navigate the changing dynamics of the alliance.
