NATO leaders are set to convene to discuss a notable shift in defense spending commitments, primarily advocating for a target of five percent of gross domestic product (GDP). However, this ambitious goal will not be uniformly applicable across all member states. Spain has recently negotiated exclusion from this spending directive, a decision announced by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. He emphasized that the final text of NATO’s upcoming summit communique would not mandate the five percent threshold for “all allies,” a move that raises questions about how future spending requirements might be enforced on other nations such as Belgium, Canada, France, and Italy—all of whom could face significant challenges in meeting a substantial increase in defense budgets.
President Donald Trump reiterated concerns surrounding the financial commitments of NATO allies, asserting that the United States should not shoulder the same expectations as its partners. He has characterized Canada as a “low payer” in terms of defense contributions. The proposed five percent target for NATO funding consists of two main components: 3.5 percent allocated for direct defense spending—an increase from the current minimum of two percent—and an additional 1.5 percent directed toward improving military infrastructure and countering emerging threats, including cyber and hybrid warfare. This differentiation in budgeting could allow countries like Spain to include various expenditures that facilitate military mobilization while struggling to meet direct spending commitments.
Spain’s current military expenditure sits at a modest 1.28 percent of its GDP, making it one of the lowest contributors within NATO. Sánchez expressed confidence that Spain could fulfill its NATO commitments through a 2.1 percent defense budget, which aligns better with the economic realities facing the country. Additionally, Spain’s contribution to military aid for Ukraine has been limited, positioning the nation as one of the smaller suppliers of arms within Europe since the onset of the conflict in 2022. As Sánchez navigates these commitments, he also contends with internal political challenges, including reliance on smaller parties and ongoing corruption scandals that pressure his administration.
Amidst these dynamics, European leaders perceive the escalating conflict in Ukraine as a pressing existential threat. Russia’s military actions have been linked to rising incidents of sabotage and cyberattacks, prompting calls for enhanced defensive capabilities. NATO experts have conveyed that effective defense of Europe and North America against potential Russian aggression necessitates defense spending of at least three percent of GDP. Each member state has been tasked with meeting specific “capability targets” vital for the collective security of the alliance.
In particular, nations bordering Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine are moving to meet these expenditure goals. For example, the Netherlands anticipates that its contributions will need to rise significantly, requiring additional funds of around 16 billion to 19 billion euros (approximately $18 billion to $22 billion) to meet the suggested 3.5 percent core defense spending threshold. This urgency is compounded by the realization that many allies are still struggling to meet a previously established goal of two percent, decided upon in 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
A firm timeline for these spending commitments remains a contentious topic among member states. The U.S. is advocating for a more immediate approach, rejecting prolonged deadlines like that of 2032, which Italy has proposed for reaching the five percent target. Concurrently, discussions about extending the deadline to as late as 2035 have surfaced, alongside potential midterm reviews in 2029 to assess the progress toward these defense spending objectives. The diplomatic balancing act continues, as leaders aim to solidify NATO’s collective security while accommodating the economic realities of its members.
