The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) is set to report its Q2 2024 results on August 7, and analysts are predicting that the company’s stock may trade lower as revenues and earnings are expected to fall slightly short of consensus expectations. The media company has been struggling with a slowdown in print advertising and revenues, but has seen improved operating results due to growth in its non-subscription segments since the pandemic. It is anticipated that digital-only subscription revenue will rise between 11% to 14% year-over-year, with total subscription revenue increasing by 6% to 8%. However, total advertising revenues are expected to decrease by a low single-digit percentage.
The performance of NYT stock has been volatile in recent years, with returns of -7% in 2021, -33% in 2022, and 51% in 2023, compared to 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 24% in 2023 for the S&P 500. While the stock underperformed the index in 2021 and 2022, it remains to be seen whether it will continue to do so in the future. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, consisting of 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period, suggesting that a group of high-quality stocks may provide better returns with less risk.
Trefis estimates that NYT’s valuation is $48 per share, which is 8% lower than the current market price. The company’s Q2 2024 revenues are expected to be around $621 million, slightly below consensus estimates. In Q1, NYT saw revenue growth of 6% year-over-year, driven by a 8% increase in subscription revenue. The total digital-only average revenue per user increased by 1.9% year-over-year due to pricing changes and subscriber growth. The company aims to reach at least 15 million total subscribers by the end of 2027, with revenues expected to grow by 6% year-over-year to $2.6 billion for full-year 2024.
Earnings per share for NYT in Q2 2024 are expected to be 38 cents according to Trefis analysis, slightly missing consensus estimates. The company’s adjusted earnings per share for Q1 2024 were 31 cents, up 63% year-over-year. With an EPS estimate of $1.82 and a P/E multiple of 26.4x in fiscal 2024, NYT’s stock price is estimated to be around $48, down 8% from the current market price. Investors can compare how NYT stacks up against its peers in terms of metrics that matter by analyzing the NYT Peers report. Ultimately, the performance of NYT stock in the coming quarters will depend on how the company navigates the challenges of the evolving media landscape and whether it can sustain its growth momentum in digital subscriptions.
