The Pentagon recently confirmed that it had warned China in advance about a test launch of a United States nuclear missile that was fired into the Pacific Ocean last week. The unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile was launched by the U.S. Air Force from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. This pre-launch notification was provided to both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense in China through U.S. Embassy channels. The U.S. hoped this ad hoc notification would encourage China to engage in negotiations for a formal pre-launch notification arrangement, similar to the one China has with Russia since 2009.
The U.S. military’s decision to provide advance notification to China followed China’s own advanced notification of its September 25 ICBM test launch. China had fired a DF-31AG ICBM from the South China Sea into the South Pacific Ocean at that time. Both the U.S. and Chinese governments acknowledged receipt of notifications from the other side. Prior to the test, the U.S. Air Force also notified the Russian government as per existing bilateral obligations. The importance of communication and cooperation in missile testing was stressed by experts, despite the lack of formal agreements between the countries involved.
China remains somewhat skeptical of the benefits of transparency with its rivals, as it is concerned about potential negative security consequences of disclosing sensitive military information. Beijing’s reluctance to engage in such practices might hinder the achievement of formalized agreements, but voluntary, reciprocal practices could still offer benefits. By providing pre-launch notifications for space or missile activities that pose a high risk of misinterpretation, China and the U.S. could establish greater confidence and reduce the risk of misunderstandings. Encouraging China to subscribe to the Hague Code of Conduct was also a move aimed at fostering greater transparency.
Both the U.S. and China are nuclear-armed countries, with the U.S. having a known arsenal of 3,748 warheads. The American ICBM force is estimated to include up to 800 nuclear warheads deployed on 400 Minuteman IIIs. China, on the other hand, has never officially disclosed the size of its nuclear arsenal. The U.S. military estimated last year that China had over 500 nuclear warheads and projected that this number might exceed 1,000 by 2030 due to a rapid nuclear expansion. Given this scenario, building mutual understanding, avoiding misunderstandings, and jointly managing risks would be crucial for maintaining peace and security internationally.
In conclusion, voluntary, reciprocal practices in providing notifications of missile launches could help foster greater transparency and confidence between the U.S. and China. Despite China’s concerns about negative security consequences, informal agreements could still pave the way for more formalized arrangements in the future. Communication and cooperation between countries with nuclear capabilities are essential to prevent misperceptions, miscalculations, and unintended consequences. By adhering to international codes and fostering dialogue, the U.S., China, and other stakeholders can work towards a more stable and secure global environment.
