A new poll conducted by Ipsos exclusively for Global News shows that the Liberals have widened their lead over the Conservatives to double digits among voters as the federal election campaign enters its third week. According to the poll, 46 percent of Canadians surveyed would vote for the Liberals, while the Conservatives fell four points to 34 percent support. The New Democratic Party received 10 percent of the vote, the Green Party received three percent, and the Bloc Quebecois received six percent nationally. Seven percent of voters remain undecided about which party they will vote for. The 12-point difference between the Liberals and Conservatives is twice the size of the gap shown in previous polling during the first week of the campaign.
The surge in support for the Liberals continues from previous years where they had double-digit polling deficits to the Conservatives under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Liberal Leader Mark Carney had to suspend his campaign twice last week to respond to new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite this, Carney’s support as the best choice for prime minister has increased to 45 percent according to the poll, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s support has fallen to 32 percent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh saw the biggest boost in support, jumping to 12 percent, while other party leaders also saw slight increases in support.
The poll also found that 47 percent of those surveyed believe the Liberals deserve re-election, while 53 percent believe it’s time for a new party to take over. Ipsos also found that 53 percent of voters are “absolutely” certain of the party they will support on Election Day. More than two-thirds of Canadians surveyed expressed hope for a majority government to avoid another election in the near future, with close to 90 percent agreeing that this election is critical for Canada’s future. Trump’s tariffs and threats on Canadian sovereignty have been a dominant issue in the election campaign, with all parties pledging to strengthen and diversify the Canadian economy away from the U.S.
Ipsos polling from the previous week found that Canada’s relationship with the U.S. was the second most important issue for voters in the election, following affordability and the cost of living. The poll also showed that voters overwhelmingly see the Liberals as the best party to handle U.S. relations, beating the Conservatives on the issue by 40 points. The poll was conducted between April 1st and 3rd, 2025, with a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and over. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data. The poll has a credibility interval of ±3.8 percentage points and was conducted online via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources.
Overall, the poll indicates a significant lead for the Liberals over the Conservatives as the federal election campaign progresses. Support for the Liberals has increased, with more Canadians viewing Carney as the best choice for prime minister. The election campaign has been dominated by issues related to Trump’s tariffs and threats, with voters expressing a desire for a majority government and agreement on the critical nature of this election for Canada’s future. The poll also highlights the importance of Canada’s relationship with the U.S. as a key issue for voters, with the Liberals seen as the best party to handle U.S. relations.
