A recent Ipsos poll conducted for Global News indicates that the Liberals are leading the Conservatives in voter support during the federal election campaign. However, both parties are tied on who will best handle the top issue of affordability and the cost of living. The poll shows the Liberals gaining momentum, with 44 percent of decided voters supporting them, compared to 38 percent for the Conservatives. The NDP has dropped to nine percent in support. The margin of error for the poll is 3.1 percentage points. Carney, the new party leader, has widened his lead over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in terms of being the best choice for prime minister.
The Green Party is seeing two percent support, while the People’s Party of Canada has one percent support, down two points. Eight percent of voters surveyed remain undecided. Carney is seen as the best leader to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump, represent Canada on the world stage, and manage tough economic times. He is also viewed as having the best temperament and maturity for the job of prime minister. Conversely, Poilievre is seen as having a hidden agenda, willing to say anything to get elected, and being in over his head. This poll marks the third in a row where the Liberals are leading federal parties, a change from the previous polling under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
The ongoing attacks from Trump, including a trade war and threats toward Canada, have made relations with the U.S. a major campaign issue. While the Liberals and Conservatives are tied on handling the affordability issue, voters overwhelmingly see the Liberals as the best party to handle U.S. relations. The U.S. issue is particularly important to older Canadians aged 55 and over, who have been gravitating towards Carney in the poll results. Poilievre and the Conservatives have high favorability in the Prairie provinces, while the Liberals and Carney are ahead in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada. The poll also indicates that voters are split on whether the Liberals should receive a fourth term in government.
Half of those surveyed believe it is time for a new party to take over, down eight points from two weeks before, while 46 percent think the Liberals deserve re-election, up four points. Health care, housing, the economy, taxes, immigration, unemployment, interest rates, and inflation were identified as other top election issues. The Liberals are viewed as best equipped to address health care, the economy, and unemployment, while the Conservatives are seen as best suited to handle housing, taxes, immigration, and inflation. The election is scheduled for April 28, and the findings of the Ipsos poll were based on interviews conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Canada aged 18 and older. The precision of the poll is within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
