Former Governor Andrew Cuomo is the clear leader in a ranked-choice voting Democratic primary for mayor, according to a new poll released by Siena College/AARP. Cuomo led over socialist Zohran Mamdani with 34% to 16% support from registered city Democrats. While Mamdani was able to chip away at Cuomo’s dominance, three other candidates, city Comptroller Brad Lander, his predecessor Scott Stringer, and Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, each received 6% support in the poll. State Sens. Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos received 4% each.
The poll also included a projection of the ranked-choice voting process, which ultimately showed Cuomo defeating Mamdani in the ninth round by a margin of 64% to 36%. The simulation took into account the elimination of other candidates and the redistribution of their second choice votes. While Cuomo did not break 50% until the eighth round, he ultimately emerged as the winner. However, about 20% of Democrats remain undecided, which could impact the outcome of the race scheduled for June 24.
In the ranked-choice contest, Brad Lander topped out at 19% and was eliminated by the ninth round, leaving Cuomo and Mamdani as the final two candidates. Despite early support for Cuomo, Mamdani was able to gain some ground in the simulations. Siena College Research Institute director Don Levy noted that Cuomo is the clear early leader in the Democratic primary, with Mamdani trailing behind. However, there is still a significant portion of voters who have not yet decided on their preferred candidate under the ranked-choice voting system.
Cuomo’s campaign has faced some setbacks, including failing to qualify for $2.7 million in public matching funds due to paperwork issues. He also made other blunders such as releasing a typo-ridden housing plan and misspelling the names of two top union leaders during an endorsement announcement. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams recently announced that he would not run in the Democratic primary and would seek re-election on his own independent ballot line. Despite these challenges, Cuomo has garnered major endorsements, which could boost his campaign.
Overall, the poll of 556 registered Democrats conducted by Siena College/AARP from April 7-10 found that Cuomo is leading in the Democratic primary for mayor. While Mamdani has gained some ground, Cuomo remains the frontrunner in the race. With the ranked-choice voting system allowing for multiple rounds of elimination and redistribution of votes, the final outcome could still be impacted by the undecided voters. The margin of error for the poll was +/- 4.9 percentage points, indicating some level of uncertainty in the results. As the primary approaches on June 24, the race between Cuomo and Mamdani is likely to intensify.
