On October 7, 2025, Ursula von der Leyen faced a critical moment in her presidency of the European Commission, as a motion of censure led by far-right factions was set for a roll call vote. However, her position appeared to strengthen as the Socialist party pledged their support for her leadership, contingent on assurances regarding the European budget that included the European Social Fund (ESF). The motion, championed by the Patriots for Europe and a section of the European Conservatives and Reformists, gathered notable backing, but it required a two-thirds majority for approval, indicating a significant hurdle for the opposition given the resistance from the European People’s Party (EPP) and many center-left members.
The Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the second-largest political group in the European Parliament, announced their opposition to the no-confidence motion on October 6, receiving a commitment from von der Leyen that the ESF would be integral to the upcoming EU budget. This pledge from the Commission President became the pivotal reason for the S&D’s decision to rally behind her, underscoring the importance of the ESF within their political agenda. Despite some dissenting voices within the group, the overall sentiment leaned toward supporting the Commission, ensuring that the vote’s outcome would favor von der Leyen, at least to a degree.
Complications arose within the Renew Europe group, where despite a unified stance against the censure motion, internal discord emerged. Some members, particularly from Ireland’s Fianna Fáil, exhibited hesitation in fully endorsing von der Leyen. This hesitance extended to particular MEPs choosing to abstain from the vote altogether, signaling a lack of cohesive support. The Greens/EFA group echoed similar tensions, with divisions rooted in varied national positions; Italian and Spanish Green MEPs opted to abstain rather than support a far-right effort aimed at ousting the Commission President, thereby illustrating the complex dynamics at play within the group.
The Left group remained markedly critical of von der Leyen’s leadership; however, internal divisions were also apparent. While many members planned to abstain to showcase their dissatisfaction, factions like Sinn Féin and the Five Star Movement demonstrated a willingness to vote in favor of the censure motion, indicating a deeper discontent with current EU policies. The contrasting positions within the Left further reflected the fragmentation of opposition against von der Leyen, complicating the task for censure proponents.
While the censure motion threatened von der Leyen’s leadership, the odds of its passage appeared slim. It was anticipated that her support would not reach the previous backing of 370 votes she received upon taking office in 2024. The upcoming vote, marked by internal divisions among opposition parties and a lack of unified strategy, highlighted growing political fractures within the European Parliament itself. These fractures suggested that the Commission’s leadership would face a challenging and uncertain future despite von der Leyen’s strengthened backing from key would-be allies.
In conclusion, as the political landscape in the European Parliament continues to evolve, von der Leyen’s commission is bracing for a crucial test of its stability and efficacy. The challenges posed by both far-right opposition and internal dissent within the governing alliances speak to a broader trend of polarization and fragmentation in EU politics. The outcome of this confidence vote not only holds implications for von der Leyen’s immediate prospects but also foreshadows the potential for ongoing strife and shifts in policy direction that could define the future of European governance.
