Over the last two decades, countries like Turkey, Hungary, Venezuela, and India have demonstrated how democracy can erode into “competitive authoritarianism,” where elections are still meaningful, but leaders manipulate the rules to their benefit while violating civil liberties. Turkey is now facing protests after the arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul and a prominent opposition politician, who was accused of various crimes. His growing popularity posed a threat to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leading to his arrest and sparking concerns about a shift towards full authoritarianism in the country.
Turkey has not reached the level of countries like Russia, where there is little political opposition to the ruling leader. However, many see Turkey’s recent actions as a step in that direction. The equation of costs and benefits for authoritarian leaders in relation to elections is crucial to understanding why these shifts are occurring. While elections can offer benefits such as validating popularity and power, the risk of losing poses a significant threat. This was evident in Venezuela when President Nicolás Maduro’s election manipulation failed and his opponent won by a landslide.
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to weaken the opposition through various means did not prevent his party from losing its parliamentary majority. The Trump administration’s lack of emphasis on promoting democracy abroad and its affinity for authoritarian leaders has had an impact on Turkey’s political landscape. The decreased criticism from the U.S. and Europe has allowed Erdogan more leeway in his actions, as his concentration of power continues.
In Turkey, economic struggles and inflation have led to increasing difficulties for the government to maintain its popularity. The nature of competitive authoritarianism tends to prioritize loyalty over capability, leading to incompetence in managing the economy effectively. The government’s arrests of opposition figures have triggered widespread protests, but the years of democratic backsliding have made it challenging for such protests to have a significant impact. The gradual erosion of democratic institutions has insulated the government from consequences in the short term, but may lead to challenges in the long run.
The protests in Turkey have expanded from university campuses to become the largest demonstrations in over a decade, despite a government crackdown. However, the effectiveness of these protests in bringing about change remains uncertain due to the capture of institutions like the judiciary and media by the government. The incremental and cumulative nature of democratic backsliding has made it difficult to prevent authoritarian shifts, as the tools to combat such actions become limited over time. As Turkey navigates these challenges, the country’s future trajectory towards democracy or authoritarianism remains uncertain.
