The youngest nation in the world, South Sudan, is facing the threat of war once again as clashes between government soldiers and armed groups continue to escalate. A recent attack on a United Nations helicopter during an evacuation mission left one crew member dead and two others injured, highlighting the fragile stability of the East African nation. The main parties involved in the conflict are the South Sudanese national military under President Salva Kiir and an opposition force known as the White Army, believed to be allied with Vice President Riek Machar. Deep-seated political and ethnic tensions, often resulting in interethnic violence, have plagued the country since gaining independence almost a decade and a half ago.
The latest escalation in violence can be traced back to government operations targeting allies of Vice President Machar, leading to the arrest of several political and military leaders in February. Subsequent attacks by the White Army on military garrisons and the arrest of more of Machar’s allies by government authorities have heightened tensions and put the delicate government at risk of collapsing. The arrest of key opposition figures has been interpreted as a move by President Kiir to consolidate power and control over the country’s political landscape, further delaying the long-overdue presidential elections scheduled for next year.
The cuts in American aid to South Sudan have had dire consequences on the humanitarian situation in the country, with essential programs for emergency food assistance and health being affected. Aid groups warn that the lack of humanitarian aid is exacerbating food insecurity and increasing the risk of spreading diseases like cholera, malaria, and tuberculosis. The United Nations has reported challenges in delivering aid effectively due to violence, bureaucratic obstacles, and extortion, particularly in Upper Nile State where the recent clashes have occurred.
Uganda has deployed special forces to Juba, the South Sudanese capital, to “secure” the city and support President Kiir’s government. Ugandan military leaders have emphasized their support for Kiir’s leadership, warning that any move against him would be considered a declaration of war against Uganda. Reports of declining health of President Kiir have raised concerns about his ability to maintain control without Uganda’s backing. The Ugandan deployment, coupled with South Sudan’s dependence on Uganda for security and stability, may sustain the status quo but raises fears of further regional conflict.
The United Nations and regional bodies have called for de-escalation of the crisis in South Sudan and urged leaders to resolve issues through dialogue. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development has called for the release of detained officials and emphasized the need for completing the transitional period ahead of elections by making constitutional changes. The U.N. Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has stressed the importance of all parties working together to ensure a peaceful transition and prevent further escalation of conflict. Despite efforts to address the crisis, the situation remains fragile, with the risk of a new civil war looming large over the country.
