In a research note from Standard Chartered, the bank’s head of digital assets, Geoffrey Kendrick, outlined his expectations for the performance of bitcoin, ether, and solana depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. If former President Donald Trump wins the election, Kendrick believes that solana could outperform ether and bitcoin significantly. Solana, launched in 2020, is designed to be faster than other cryptocurrencies and allows developers to create applications, similar to ether. Kendrick predicts that under a Trump administration, solana could see a 400% increase, with ether rising 300% and bitcoin increasing by 200% in 2025.
Kendrick explains that a Trump administration is seen as more supportive of the digital assets ecosystem, potentially leading to increased adoption and investment in cryptocurrencies. He also points out that the introduction of a solana ETF, or exchange-traded fund, would be more likely under Trump than under a Harris administration. The market outlook for ether versus bitcoin could also be influenced by the outcome of the election, with Kendrick suggesting that ether could outperform bitcoin under a Trump presidency.
On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, Kendrick believes that bitcoin could outperform ether, and ether could outperform solana in 2025. He expects that under a Harris administration, ether could see a price increase to around $7,000, compared to $10,000 under a Trump administration. Currently, ether is trading around $2,410. Despite his positive outlook for solana under a Trump presidency, Kendrick acknowledges that the cryptocurrency’s current valuation appears to be richly priced compared to ether on various measures, including its market capitalization-to-transaction fee ratio and overall net issuance of the token.
Furthermore, Kendrick highlights that solana’s valuation would require a significant increase in throughput, potentially by 100-400 times over the next few years. He believes that this level of growth in throughput is more likely to occur under a Trump administration due to the perceived friendliness of such an administration towards the broader digital asset ecosystem. Kendrick emphasizes the importance of considering both backward-looking and forward-looking measures when assessing the value of solana as an investment.
In conclusion, the research note from Standard Chartered suggests that the performance of solana, ether, and bitcoin could be influenced by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. While solana may have the potential to outperform other cryptocurrencies under a Trump administration, its current valuation compared to ether raises some concerns. Investors are advised to consider the potential impact of political events on the digital assets market and to evaluate the long-term prospects of different cryptocurrencies based on both technical and fundamental factors.
